I claim that this is not how I think about AI capabilities, and it is not how many AI researchers think about AI capabilities. For a particularly extreme example, the Go-explore paper out of Uber had a very nominally impressive result on Montezuma’s Revenge, but much of the AI community didn’t find it compelling because of the assumptions that their algorithm used.
Sorry, I meant the results in light of which methods were used, implications for other research, etc. The sentence would better read, “My understanding (and I think everyone else’s) of AI capabilities is largely shaped by how impressive major papers seem.”
Tbc, I definitely did not intend for that to be an actual metric.
Yeah, totally got that—I just think that making a relevant metric would be hard, and we’d have to know a lot that we don’t know now, including whether current ML techniques can ever lead to AGI.
I would say that I have a set of intuitions and impressions that function as a very weak prediction of what AI will look like in the future, along the lines of that sort of metric. I trust timelines based on extrapolation of progress using these intuitions more than timelines based solely on compute.
Interesting. Yeah, I don’t much trust my own intuitions on our current progress. I’d love to have a better understanding of how to evaluate the implications of new developments, but I really can’t do much better than, “GPT-2 impressed me a lot more than AlphaStar.” And to be totally clear—I don’t think we’ll get AGI as soon as we reach the 18-year mark, or the 300-year one. I do tend to think that the necessary amount of compute is somewhere in that range, though. After we reach it, I’m stuck using my intuition to guess when we’ll have the right algorithms to create AGI.
(Criss-cross)
Sorry, I meant the results in light of which methods were used, implications for other research, etc. The sentence would better read, “My understanding (and I think everyone else’s) of AI capabilities is largely shaped by how impressive major papers seem.”
Yeah, totally got that—I just think that making a relevant metric would be hard, and we’d have to know a lot that we don’t know now, including whether current ML techniques can ever lead to AGI.
Interesting. Yeah, I don’t much trust my own intuitions on our current progress. I’d love to have a better understanding of how to evaluate the implications of new developments, but I really can’t do much better than, “GPT-2 impressed me a lot more than AlphaStar.” And to be totally clear—I don’t think we’ll get AGI as soon as we reach the 18-year mark, or the 300-year one. I do tend to think that the necessary amount of compute is somewhere in that range, though. After we reach it, I’m stuck using my intuition to guess when we’ll have the right algorithms to create AGI.