Furthermore 2⁄3 doom is straightforwardly the wrong thing to infer from the 1:1 betting odds, even taking those at face value and even before taking interest rates into account; Bryan gave me $100 which gets returned as $200 later.
(I do consider this a noteworthy example of ‘People seem systematically to make the mistake in the direction that interprets Eliezer’s stuff as more weird and extreme’ because it’s a clear arithmetical error and because I saw a recorded transcript of it apparently passing the notice of several people I considered usually epistemically strong.)
(Though it’s also easier than people expect to just not notice things; I didn’t realize at the time that Ajeya was talking about a misinterpretation of the implied odds from the Caplan bet, and thought she was just guessing my own odds at 2⁄3, and I didn’t want to argue about that because I don’t think it valuable to the world or maybe even to myself to go about arguing those exact numbers.)
Yes, Rob is right about the inference coming from the bet and Eliezer is right that the bet was actually 1:1 odds but due to the somewhat unusual bet format I misread it as 2:1 odds.
Maybe I’m wrong about her deriving this from the Caplan bet? Ajeya hasn’t actually confirmed that, it was just an inference I drew. I’ll poke her to double-check.
Furthermore 2⁄3 doom is straightforwardly the wrong thing to infer from the 1:1 betting odds, even taking those at face value and even before taking interest rates into account; Bryan gave me $100 which gets returned as $200 later.
(I do consider this a noteworthy example of ‘People seem systematically to make the mistake in the direction that interprets Eliezer’s stuff as more weird and extreme’ because it’s a clear arithmetical error and because I saw a recorded transcript of it apparently passing the notice of several people I considered usually epistemically strong.)
(Though it’s also easier than people expect to just not notice things; I didn’t realize at the time that Ajeya was talking about a misinterpretation of the implied odds from the Caplan bet, and thought she was just guessing my own odds at 2⁄3, and I didn’t want to argue about that because I don’t think it valuable to the world or maybe even to myself to go about arguing those exact numbers.)
Yes, Rob is right about the inference coming from the bet and Eliezer is right that the bet was actually 1:1 odds but due to the somewhat unusual bet format I misread it as 2:1 odds.
Maybe I’m wrong about her deriving this from the Caplan bet? Ajeya hasn’t actually confirmed that, it was just an inference I drew. I’ll poke her to double-check.