My memory of the past is not great in general, but considering that I bet sums of my own money and advised others to do so, I am surprised that my memory here would be that bad, if it was.
Neither GJO nor Metaculus are restricted to only past superforecasters, as I understand it; and my recollection is that superforecasters in particular, not all participants at GJO or Metaculus, were saying in the range of 20%. Here’s an example of one such, which I have a potentially false memory of having maybe read at the time: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/118530
Thanks for clarifying. That makes sense that you may have been referring to a specific subset of forecasters. I do think that some forecasters tend to be much more reliable than others (and maybe there was/is a way to restrict to “superforecasters” in the UI).
I will add the following piece of evidence, which I don’t think counts much for or against your memory, but which still seems relevant. Metaculus shows a histogram of predictions. On the relevant question, a relatively high fraction of people put a 20% chance, but it also looks like over 80% of forecasters put higher credences.
My memory of the past is not great in general, but considering that I bet sums of my own money and advised others to do so, I am surprised that my memory here would be that bad, if it was.
Neither GJO nor Metaculus are restricted to only past superforecasters, as I understand it; and my recollection is that superforecasters in particular, not all participants at GJO or Metaculus, were saying in the range of 20%. Here’s an example of one such, which I have a potentially false memory of having maybe read at the time: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/118530
Thanks for clarifying. That makes sense that you may have been referring to a specific subset of forecasters. I do think that some forecasters tend to be much more reliable than others (and maybe there was/is a way to restrict to “superforecasters” in the UI).
I will add the following piece of evidence, which I don’t think counts much for or against your memory, but which still seems relevant. Metaculus shows a histogram of predictions. On the relevant question, a relatively high fraction of people put a 20% chance, but it also looks like over 80% of forecasters put higher credences.