Thanks for clarifying. That makes sense that you may have been referring to a specific subset of forecasters. I do think that some forecasters tend to be much more reliable than others (and maybe there was/is a way to restrict to “superforecasters” in the UI).
I will add the following piece of evidence, which I don’t think counts much for or against your memory, but which still seems relevant. Metaculus shows a histogram of predictions. On the relevant question, a relatively high fraction of people put a 20% chance, but it also looks like over 80% of forecasters put higher credences.
Thanks for clarifying. That makes sense that you may have been referring to a specific subset of forecasters. I do think that some forecasters tend to be much more reliable than others (and maybe there was/is a way to restrict to “superforecasters” in the UI).
I will add the following piece of evidence, which I don’t think counts much for or against your memory, but which still seems relevant. Metaculus shows a histogram of predictions. On the relevant question, a relatively high fraction of people put a 20% chance, but it also looks like over 80% of forecasters put higher credences.