Wow thanks for pulling that up. I’ve gotta say, having records of people’s predictions is pretty sweet. Similarly, solid find on the Bostrom quote.
Do you think that might be the 20% number that Eliezer is remembering? Eliezer, interested in whether you have a recollection of this or not. [Added: It seems from a comment upthread that EY was talking about superforecasters in Feb 2016, which is after Fan Hui.]
There was still a big update from ~20%->90%, which is what is relevant for Eliezer’s argument, even if he misremembered the timing. The fact that the update was from the Fan Hui match rather than the Lee Sedol match doesn’t seem that important to the argument [for superforecasters being caught flatfooted by discontinuous AI-Go progress].
Wow thanks for pulling that up. I’ve gotta say, having records of people’s predictions is pretty sweet. Similarly, solid find on the Bostrom quote.
Do you think that might be the 20% number that Eliezer is remembering? Eliezer, interested in whether you have a recollection of this or not. [Added: It seems from a comment upthread that EY was talking about superforecasters in Feb 2016, which is after Fan Hui.]
There was still a big update from ~20%->90%, which is what is relevant for Eliezer’s argument, even if he misremembered the timing. The fact that the update was from the Fan Hui match rather than the Lee Sedol match doesn’t seem that important to the argument [for superforecasters being caught flatfooted by discontinuous AI-Go progress].