isabel comments on 2025 Prediction Thread

[isabel]

oh, I like this feature a lot!

what’s the plan for how scoring /​ checking resolved predictions will work?

[habryka]

I don’t think I would want any kind of site-wide scoring, since I explicitly don’t want people to have to worry too much about operationalization.

I do think if people keep using the feature, we’ll add some way to resolve things, and resolved markets should have some way of showing whose predictions were right, and send people notifications. And maybe we’ll also show people’s predictions on their profiles at some point.

If the thing really takes off, of course there is a whole world of integrating prediction things more deeply into LW, but that seems somewhat unlikely given Manifold’s existence and success.

[jimrandomh]

We don’t have any plans yet; we might circle back in a year and build a leaderboard, or we might not. (It’s also possible for third-parties to do that with our API). If we do anything like that, I promise the scoring will be incentive-compatible.

[Screwtape]

. . . Okay, I’ll bite.

Somebody (possibly Screwtape) builds an integration between Fatebook.io and the LessWrong prediction UI by the end of July 2025

Edit: And-

Conditional on somebody building an integration between Fatebook.io and the LessWrong prediction UI by the end of July 2025, it's Screwtape that built it

Now, I don’t suppose that LessWrong prediction API is documented anywhere?

[jimrandomh]

Kinda. There’s source code here and you can poke around the API in graphiql. (We don’t promise not to change things without warning.) When you get the HTML content of a post/​comment it will contain elements that look like <div data-elicit-id="tYHTHHcAdR4W4XzHC">Prediction</div> (the attribute name is a holdover from when we had an offsite integration with Elicit). For example, your prediction “Somebody (possibly Screwtape) builds an integration between Fatebook.io and the LessWrong prediction UI by the end of July 2025″ has ID tYHTHHcAdR4W4XzHC. A graphql query to get the results:

query GetPrediction {
  ElicitBlockData(questionId:"tYHTHHcAdR4W4XzHC") {
    _id predictions {
      createdAt
      creator { displayName }
    }
  }
}