I don’t think I would want any kind of site-wide scoring, since I explicitly don’t want people to have to worry too much about operationalization.
I do think if people keep using the feature, we’ll add some way to resolve things, and resolved markets should have some way of showing whose predictions were right, and send people notifications. And maybe we’ll also show people’s predictions on their profiles at some point.
If the thing really takes off, of course there is a whole world of integrating prediction things more deeply into LW, but that seems somewhat unlikely given Manifold’s existence and success.
I don’t think I would want any kind of site-wide scoring, since I explicitly don’t want people to have to worry too much about operationalization.
I do think if people keep using the feature, we’ll add some way to resolve things, and resolved markets should have some way of showing whose predictions were right, and send people notifications. And maybe we’ll also show people’s predictions on their profiles at some point.
If the thing really takes off, of course there is a whole world of integrating prediction things more deeply into LW, but that seems somewhat unlikely given Manifold’s existence and success.