Let’s call the thing where you try to take actions that make everyone/yourself less dead (on expectation) the “safety game”. This game is annoyingly chaotic, kind of like Arimaa.
You write the sequences then some risk-averse not-very-power-seeking nerds read it and you’re 10x less dead. Then Mr. Altman reads it and you’re 10x more dead. Then maybe (or not) there’s a backlash and the numbers change again.
You start a cute political movement but the countermovement ends up being 10x more actionable (e/acc).
You try to figure out and explain some of the black box but your explanation is immediately used to make a stronger black box. (Mamba possibly.)
Etc.
I’m curious what folks use as toeholds for making decisions in such circumstances. Or if some folks believe there are actually principles then I would like to hear them, but I suspect the fog is too thick. I’ll skip giving my own answer on this one.
The things you mentioned were probably all net positive, they just had some negative consequences as well. If you want to drive the far-ish future in a particular direction you’ve just got to accept that you’ll never know for sure that you’re doing a good job.