Uhm, are you sure you are not succumbing to the false-consensus effect?
Quite sure. To quote from another post I made in this thread:
I think that, right now, most people have no strong view on the subject. But I think that people are good at learning, and so, over time, they will imitate those marriages which prove the most successful, and which best signal future commitment. I could be wrong.
Basically, I think people radically and consistently underestimate the effects of institutional constraints and incentives, and assume that aggregate societal results are somehow “chosen.” So people tend to think that:
Our high rate of divorce is very bad
Changing the incentives to get a divorce has little or no effect on this.
Something just “magically” happened in the 1960s/1970s (“Kids today...”/”liberation!”).
If you enabled people to make binding commitments in marriage, I don’t think most people would leap out and take advantage immediately. Most people would just keep on with whatever they’re doing. But a small number of people would, and their marriages would be more successful and happier and long-lasting, and over time (decades) their behaviour would be imitated, and so on.
Keep in mind that no-fault divorce laws weren’t imposed by dictators trying to destroy the fabric of society or something, they were passed with popular support by democratically elected governments
Disagree about the popular support thing. In Britain, certainly, the Divorce Reform Act was passed with neither popular support nor opposition, just a public who didn’t particularly care. The people pushing for it were a small number of activists, who were also in favour of these social “liberalisations” like abolition of the death penalty, etc. Many of these “lilberalisations” were in fact quite unpopular. I think you greatly underestimate the institutional leeway available to politicians/regulators.
Holding an unpopular political position is legitimate, but what makes you think that public opinion would move back to it?
I don’t think my position is so much unpopular as it is low-demand. I think the UK government, at least, could easily pass the kind of law I favour, and no-one much would care. In fact I don’t think my position is ever likely to be in high demand, because most people don’t think incentives are particularly important.
Disagree about the popular support thing. In Britain, certainly, the Divorce Reform Act was passed with neither popular support nor opposition, just a public who didn’t particularly care. The people pushing for it were a small number of activists, who were also in favour of these social “liberalisations” like abolition of the death penalty, etc. Many of these “lilberalisations” were in fact quite unpopular. I think you greatly underestimate the institutional leeway available to politicians/regulators.
It seems to me that you are arguing that some small groups of activists somehow managed to manipulate the democratic governments of multiple countries in a short span of time, without the general public taking notice, despite the fact that this alleged manipulation affected in substantial (and significantly negative, in your opinion) ways the family life of many people. Sorry, but I don’t think this is a rationally tenable position.
It seems to me that you are arguing that some small groups of activists somehow managed to manipulate the democratic governments of multiple countries in a short span of time,
Yes. This is indeed the whole point of activism.
without the general public taking notice,
I never said anything of the sort. Perhaps I should take it as a compliment that people are determined to put words into my mouth, as it indicates they feel unable to argue with my actual position. In fact, of course, the public did take notice, but didn’t much care.
despite the fact that this alleged manipulation affected in substantial (and significantly negative, in your opinion) ways the family life of many people.
Yes, because the effect was attenuated, and was not seen as causally linked to the activity.
I’m afraid your model of political activity in democratic governments is rather faulty.
Perhaps I should take it as a compliment that people are determined to put words into my mouth, as it indicates they feel unable to argue with my actual position.
Or maybe it indicates that you are not being clear in arguing your position.
Yes, because the effect was attenuated, and was not seen as causally linked to the activity.
In another comment you claimed that divorce rates skyrocketed the very same year that no-fault divorce legislation was passed, now you are arguing that there was no immediate large effect. I’m starting to think that you actually don’t have a coherent position, and you just want to argue that “good old” conservative values are obviously desirable and therefore you have to handwave away the fact that public opinion is largely against them by pushing a quasi-conspiracist narrative.
Quite sure. To quote from another post I made in this thread:
Basically, I think people radically and consistently underestimate the effects of institutional constraints and incentives, and assume that aggregate societal results are somehow “chosen.” So people tend to think that:
Our high rate of divorce is very bad
Changing the incentives to get a divorce has little or no effect on this.
Something just “magically” happened in the 1960s/1970s (“Kids today...”/”liberation!”).
If you enabled people to make binding commitments in marriage, I don’t think most people would leap out and take advantage immediately. Most people would just keep on with whatever they’re doing. But a small number of people would, and their marriages would be more successful and happier and long-lasting, and over time (decades) their behaviour would be imitated, and so on.
Disagree about the popular support thing. In Britain, certainly, the Divorce Reform Act was passed with neither popular support nor opposition, just a public who didn’t particularly care. The people pushing for it were a small number of activists, who were also in favour of these social “liberalisations” like abolition of the death penalty, etc. Many of these “lilberalisations” were in fact quite unpopular. I think you greatly underestimate the institutional leeway available to politicians/regulators.
I don’t think my position is so much unpopular as it is low-demand. I think the UK government, at least, could easily pass the kind of law I favour, and no-one much would care. In fact I don’t think my position is ever likely to be in high demand, because most people don’t think incentives are particularly important.
It seems to me that you are arguing that some small groups of activists somehow managed to manipulate the democratic governments of multiple countries in a short span of time, without the general public taking notice, despite the fact that this alleged manipulation affected in substantial (and significantly negative, in your opinion) ways the family life of many people.
Sorry, but I don’t think this is a rationally tenable position.
Yes. This is indeed the whole point of activism.
I never said anything of the sort. Perhaps I should take it as a compliment that people are determined to put words into my mouth, as it indicates they feel unable to argue with my actual position. In fact, of course, the public did take notice, but didn’t much care.
Yes, because the effect was attenuated, and was not seen as causally linked to the activity.
I’m afraid your model of political activity in democratic governments is rather faulty.
Or maybe it indicates that you are not being clear in arguing your position.
In another comment you claimed that divorce rates skyrocketed the very same year that no-fault divorce legislation was passed, now you are arguing that there was no immediate large effect.
I’m starting to think that you actually don’t have a coherent position, and you just want to argue that “good old” conservative values are obviously desirable and therefore you have to handwave away the fact that public opinion is largely against them by pushing a quasi-conspiracist narrative.