We made a Colab notebook that lets you forecast total x-risk as a combination of specific risks. For example, you construct pdfs for x-risk from AGI and biotech, and the notebook will calculate a pdf for overall risk. This pdf is ready to display as an answer. (Note: this example assumes AGI and biotech are the main risks and are statistically independent.)
The notebook will also display the cdf for each specific risk and for overall risk:
Screenshot showing output from Colab notebook
As a bonus, you can use this notebook to turn your Elicit pdf for overall x-risk into a cdf. Just paste your snapshot url into first url box and run the cell below.
I’m having some technical difficulties I think. When I run the last thing that’s supposed to generate my combined distribution, I get the error “NameError: name ‘labels’ is not defined”
You need to first run all the cells in “Setup Code” (e.g. by selecting “Runtime > Run before”). Then run the cell with the form input (“risk1label”, “risk1url”, etc), and then run the cell that plots your pdf/cdf. It sounds like you’re running the last cell without having run the middle one.
We made a Colab notebook that lets you forecast total x-risk as a combination of specific risks. For example, you construct pdfs for x-risk from AGI and biotech, and the notebook will calculate a pdf for overall risk. This pdf is ready to display as an answer. (Note: this example assumes AGI and biotech are the main risks and are statistically independent.)
The notebook will also display the cdf for each specific risk and for overall risk:
As a bonus, you can use this notebook to turn your Elicit pdf for overall x-risk into a cdf. Just paste your snapshot url into first url box and run the cell below.
I’m having some technical difficulties I think. When I run the last thing that’s supposed to generate my combined distribution, I get the error “NameError: name ‘labels’ is not defined”
You need to first run all the cells in “Setup Code” (e.g. by selecting “Runtime > Run before”). Then run the cell with the form input (“risk1label”, “risk1url”, etc), and then run the cell that plots your pdf/cdf. It sounds like you’re running the last cell without having run the middle one.
Thanks!