In 1 to 4 years, we’re in the same situation we were before, except AI research is more spread out and now conducted in the countries that are most hostile to alignment and least concerned for safety.
Minor comment: I feel like if the western labs shut down due to public outcry + regulation in the West, it would take more than 1-4 years for the rest of the world to catch up, in expectation. I could totally see it happening, but I think it’s fairly likely that the rest of the world (which is already at least a year or so behind) would slow down substantially in response.
Minor comment: I feel like if the western labs shut down due to public outcry + regulation in the West, it would take more than 1-4 years for the rest of the world to catch up, in expectation. I could totally see it happening, but I think it’s fairly likely that the rest of the world (which is already at least a year or so behind) would slow down substantially in response.