You have give the AGI magical powers and not considered what in the real world would limit what it could accomplish in a few hours.
You assumed all worldwide compute is equal for the purposes of the AI rather than almost all of it worthless except for inference accelerators. The reason has to do with inter node bandwidth.
You assumed money could be turned into physical resources and actions instantly like a video game, rather than requiring months to years to fill large orders
You assumed you could go rob the stock market with ease and no one would notice. Hint, what is the entire industry HFT industry’s annual revenue?
You didn’t even consider this but I have, with early sparse robot fleets even exponential growth is slow
You assumed every computer in the world including embedded routers and firewalls can be hacked and the AGI will have the ability to do so, ignoring any issues with source access or binary access or simple devices actually not letting the AGI in.
And so on. The issue is you have become a politically motivated here, you must at some level know 1-6 exist but it doesn’t agree with “your” side. You probably can’t admit you are wrong about a single point.
Ok, I admit I simplified here. There is still probably ~ a million times (give or take an order of magnitude) more relevant compute (GPUs, TPUs) than was used to train GPT-4.
It won’t need large orders to gain a relevant foothold. Just a few tiny orders could suffice.
I didn’t mean literallly rob the stock market. I’m referring to out-trading all the other traders (inc. existing HFT) to accumulate resources.
Exponential growth can’t remain “slow” forever, by definition. How long does it take for the pond to be completely covered by lily pads when it’s half covered? How long did it take for Covid to become a pandemic? Not decades.
I referred to social hacking (i.e. blackmailing people into giving up their passwords). This could go far enough (say, at least 10% of world devices). Maybe quantum computers (or some better tech the AI thinks up) could do the rest.
Do you have any basis for the 1e6 estimate? Assuming 25,000 GPUs were used to train 4, when I do the math on Nvidia’s annual volume I get about 1e6 of the data center GPUs that matter.
Reason you cannot use gaming GPUs has to do with the large size of the activation, you must have the high internode bandwidth between the machines or you get negligible performance.
So 40 times. Say it didn’t take 25k but took 2.5k. 400 times. Nowhere close to 1e6.
Distributed networks spend most of the time idle waiting on activations to transfer, it could be 1000 times performance loss or more, making every gaming g GPU in the world—they are made at about 60 times the rate of data center GPUs—not matter at all.
Orders of what? You said billions of dollars I assume you had some idea of what it buys for that
Out trading empties the order books of exploitable gradients so this saturates.
That’s what this argument is about- I am saying the growth doubling time is months to years per doubling. So it takes a couple decades to matter. It’s still “fast”—and it gets crazy the near the end—but it’s not an explosion and there are many years where the AGI is too weak to openly turn against humans. So it has to pretend to cooperate and if humans refuse to trust it and build systems that can’t defect at all because they lack context (they have no way to know if they are in the training set) humans can survive.
I agree that this is one of the ways AGI could beat us, given the evidence of large amounts of human stupidity in some scenarios.
Can you be more specific about what you don’t agree with? Which parts can’t happen, and why?
You have give the AGI magical powers and not considered what in the real world would limit what it could accomplish in a few hours.
You assumed all worldwide compute is equal for the purposes of the AI rather than almost all of it worthless except for inference accelerators. The reason has to do with inter node bandwidth.
You assumed money could be turned into physical resources and actions instantly like a video game, rather than requiring months to years to fill large orders
You assumed you could go rob the stock market with ease and no one would notice. Hint, what is the entire industry HFT industry’s annual revenue?
You didn’t even consider this but I have, with early sparse robot fleets even exponential growth is slow
You assumed every computer in the world including embedded routers and firewalls can be hacked and the AGI will have the ability to do so, ignoring any issues with source access or binary access or simple devices actually not letting the AGI in.
And so on. The issue is you have become a politically motivated here, you must at some level know 1-6 exist but it doesn’t agree with “your” side. You probably can’t admit you are wrong about a single point.
Ok, I admit I simplified here. There is still probably ~ a million times (give or take an order of magnitude) more relevant compute (GPUs, TPUs) than was used to train GPT-4.
It won’t need large orders to gain a relevant foothold. Just a few tiny orders could suffice.
I didn’t mean literallly rob the stock market. I’m referring to out-trading all the other traders (inc. existing HFT) to accumulate resources.
Exponential growth can’t remain “slow” forever, by definition. How long does it take for the pond to be completely covered by lily pads when it’s half covered? How long did it take for Covid to become a pandemic? Not decades.
I referred to social hacking (i.e. blackmailing people into giving up their passwords). This could go far enough (say, at least 10% of world devices). Maybe quantum computers (or some better tech the AI thinks up) could do the rest.
Do you have any basis for the 1e6 estimate? Assuming 25,000 GPUs were used to train 4, when I do the math on Nvidia’s annual volume I get about 1e6 of the data center GPUs that matter.
Reason you cannot use gaming GPUs has to do with the large size of the activation, you must have the high internode bandwidth between the machines or you get negligible performance.
So 40 times. Say it didn’t take 25k but took 2.5k. 400 times. Nowhere close to 1e6.
Distributed networks spend most of the time idle waiting on activations to transfer, it could be 1000 times performance loss or more, making every gaming g GPU in the world—they are made at about 60 times the rate of data center GPUs—not matter at all.
Orders of what? You said billions of dollars I assume you had some idea of what it buys for that
Out trading empties the order books of exploitable gradients so this saturates.
That’s what this argument is about- I am saying the growth doubling time is months to years per doubling. So it takes a couple decades to matter. It’s still “fast”—and it gets crazy the near the end—but it’s not an explosion and there are many years where the AGI is too weak to openly turn against humans. So it has to pretend to cooperate and if humans refuse to trust it and build systems that can’t defect at all because they lack context (they have no way to know if they are in the training set) humans can survive.
I agree that this is one of the ways AGI could beat us, given the evidence of large amounts of human stupidity in some scenarios.