Please, for the love of god, do not keep using a term that people will predictably misread as implying longer timelines. I expect this to have real-world consequences. If someone wants to operationalize a bet about it having significant real-world consequences I would bet money on it.
I would be willing to take the other side of this bet depending on the operationalization. Certainly I would take the “no” side of the bet for “will Joe Biden (or the next president) use the words ‘slow takeoff’ in a speech to describe the current trajectory of AI”
The relevant question is ‘Will a policy wonk inform Joe Biden (or, any other major decisionmaker) who either read a report with ‘slow takeoff’ and got confused,
or, read a report by someone who read a report by someone who was confused. (This is the one that seems very likely to me)
There’s no way I’d be on “will someone talk to someone who talked to someone who was once confused about something” because that’s not what I think “real world impact” means.
At a minimum it would have to be in a official report signed by the office of the president, or something that has the force-of-law like an executive order.
I would be willing to take the other side of this bet depending on the operationalization. Certainly I would take the “no” side of the bet for “will Joe Biden (or the next president) use the words ‘slow takeoff’ in a speech to describe the current trajectory of AI”
The relevant question is ‘Will a policy wonk inform Joe Biden (or, any other major decisionmaker) who either read a report with ‘slow takeoff’ and got confused,
or, read a report by someone who read a report by someone who was confused. (This is the one that seems very likely to me)
There’s no way I’d be on “will someone talk to someone who talked to someone who was once confused about something” because that’s not what I think “real world impact” means.
At a minimum it would have to be in a official report signed by the office of the president, or something that has the force-of-law like an executive order.