I think we’re pretty likely to see a smooth and short takeoff with ASI prior to 2029. Now, imagine that you were making this exactly prediction up through 2029 in 2000. From the perspective in 2000, you are exactly predicting smooth and short takeoff with long timelines!
So, I think this is actually a pretty natural prediction.
For instance, you get this prediction if you think that a scalable paradigm will be found in the future and will scale up to ASI and on this scalable paradigm the delay between ASI and transformative AI will be short (either because the flop difference is small or because flop scaling will be pretty rapid at the relevant point because it is still pretty cheap, perhaps <$100 billion).
I agree with the spirit of what you are saying but I want to register a desire for “long timelines” to mean “>50 years” or “after 2100”. In public discourse, heading Yann LeCunn say something like “I have long timelines, by which I mean, no crazy event in the next 5 years”—it’s simply not what people think when they think long timelines, outside of the AI sphere.
I think we’re pretty likely to see a smooth and short takeoff with ASI prior to 2029. Now, imagine that you were making this exactly prediction up through 2029 in 2000. From the perspective in 2000, you are exactly predicting smooth and short takeoff with long timelines!
So, I think this is actually a pretty natural prediction.
For instance, you get this prediction if you think that a scalable paradigm will be found in the future and will scale up to ASI and on this scalable paradigm the delay between ASI and transformative AI will be short (either because the flop difference is small or because flop scaling will be pretty rapid at the relevant point because it is still pretty cheap, perhaps <$100 billion).
I agree with the spirit of what you are saying but I want to register a desire for “long timelines” to mean “>50 years” or “after 2100”. In public discourse, heading Yann LeCunn say something like “I have long timelines, by which I mean, no crazy event in the next 5 years”—it’s simply not what people think when they think long timelines, outside of the AI sphere.