I will read the Moldbug article, although I have to say I’m not optimistic, given my past experience with his writing. But I do want to disagree on this:
Inferring causality from a time-series of various economic variables is incoherent… Data about effects of economic policy tells us nothing if one has not already pre-supposed causal relationships between certain variables (ie, which variable is affecting which). If one had not done so, how does one know which variables to link with which other one?
I think you are either underestimating the tools at our disposal for causal discovery, or you have an evidential standard for causality that is way too high. Are you familiar with Judea Pearl’s work on inferring causation from probabilities? Check out this sweet post by Eliezer if you’re not.
ETA: I’m only a few paragraphs into the Moldbug piece and my hackles are already rising. He has already declared that a conscious being must be rational “by definition” and that other peoples’ desires are unknowable, also “by definition”. I don’t think either of these claims are true (assuming the words have their usual meanings), let alone true by definition. This doesn’t bode well, but I’ll keep reading.
Thanks. I have read that post by Eliezer before. The issue with monetary economics is the number of variables. Money is one half of every single transaction, in a sophisticated economy.
Re definitions, the meaning of rational there is that the person acts based on his internal map of the world (this is how Mises used the word way back when and it is part of parlance in Misesian economics). It does not mean what LW thinks it means.
Re unknowable desires, it is a way of saying that economically relevant desires are revealed by economic actions. Demand means being willing and able to pay.
Semantic issue in both cases :)
I mean that in a monetary economy, one always buys goods and services with money. One side of the transaction is money, whatever it is. Sophisticated here means an economy that has progressed beyond barter and developed a medium of exchange and a store of value, ie, Money.
I will read the Moldbug article, although I have to say I’m not optimistic, given my past experience with his writing. But I do want to disagree on this:
I think you are either underestimating the tools at our disposal for causal discovery, or you have an evidential standard for causality that is way too high. Are you familiar with Judea Pearl’s work on inferring causation from probabilities? Check out this sweet post by Eliezer if you’re not.
ETA: I’m only a few paragraphs into the Moldbug piece and my hackles are already rising. He has already declared that a conscious being must be rational “by definition” and that other peoples’ desires are unknowable, also “by definition”. I don’t think either of these claims are true (assuming the words have their usual meanings), let alone true by definition. This doesn’t bode well, but I’ll keep reading.
Economies that have multiple currencies are unsophisticated...?