I am currently tracking the local data for where I live to get an idea of risk level for me personally.
The model is simple, total population, reported infections (not sure if I want to try adjusting for under reporting or not but should be a simple effort mechanically even if putting a number to it isn’t) and some estimate of how many people I might “interact” with on a daily basis.
The formula was the one posted on MR for calculating the probability of someone in a conference of size X being infected. Not quite the same but don’t mind having an over stated risk.
One thing I’m wondering about is how to estimate the number of people in “the conference”. This has to be the number of people I might randomly cross paths with that could transfer the virus to me. Since some of the risk then comes from being in public places, such as a grocery store, I’m wondering how best to think about that setting.
One way would be to think about the average daily shoppers and workers at the store. Another might be the number of people I am waiting in line with and passing in the isles. Clearly the two will be significantly different.
I’m also not thinking about any cumulative impact here—not probability of infection in the next 3 month (or even interacting with someone infected over that period which is actually the calculation I am doing) but what does today look like.
[Question] Ideas on estimating personal risk of infection
I am currently tracking the local data for where I live to get an idea of risk level for me personally.
The model is simple, total population, reported infections (not sure if I want to try adjusting for under reporting or not but should be a simple effort mechanically even if putting a number to it isn’t) and some estimate of how many people I might “interact” with on a daily basis.
The formula was the one posted on MR for calculating the probability of someone in a conference of size X being infected. Not quite the same but don’t mind having an over stated risk.
One thing I’m wondering about is how to estimate the number of people in “the conference”. This has to be the number of people I might randomly cross paths with that could transfer the virus to me. Since some of the risk then comes from being in public places, such as a grocery store, I’m wondering how best to think about that setting.
One way would be to think about the average daily shoppers and workers at the store. Another might be the number of people I am waiting in line with and passing in the isles. Clearly the two will be significantly different.
I’m also not thinking about any cumulative impact here—not probability of infection in the next 3 month (or even interacting with someone infected over that period which is actually the calculation I am doing) but what does today look like.
Would be interested in thoughts those here have.