When you appeal to theory that is not conventionally robust, I think the key distinction is between asking intuition and looking for priors. This seems to be the same disagreement as about potential for philosophical progress: intuition may claim something, but does it have the expertise, does it connect with the territory? If in an a priori framing (as in outside view, or antiprediction) something seems unlikely, and intuition shouldn’t be expected to know much better, why trust it? Intuition is not the a priori, it merely should be when the mind has no useful data.
(The question where intuition is hard to trust is about real world rationalists, not ideal rationalists. In principle rationality training is useful, but the difficult question is whether it’s significant compared to selecting people for the same style of thinking.)
When you appeal to theory that is not conventionally robust, I think the key distinction is between asking intuition and looking for priors. This seems to be the same disagreement as about potential for philosophical progress: intuition may claim something, but does it have the expertise, does it connect with the territory? If in an a priori framing (as in outside view, or antiprediction) something seems unlikely, and intuition shouldn’t be expected to know much better, why trust it? Intuition is not the a priori, it merely should be when the mind has no useful data.
(The question where intuition is hard to trust is about real world rationalists, not ideal rationalists. In principle rationality training is useful, but the difficult question is whether it’s significant compared to selecting people for the same style of thinking.)