The original description of the problem doesn’t mention if you know of Omega’s strategy for deciding what to place in box B, or their success history in predicting this outcome—which is obviously a very important factor.
If you know these things, then the only rational choice, obviously and by a huge margin, is to pick only box B.
If you don’t know anything other than box B may or may not contain a million dollars, and you have no reasons to believe that it’s unlikely, like in the lottery, then the only rational decision is to take both. This also seems to be completely obvious and unambiguous.
But since this community has spent a while debating this, I conclude that there’s a good chance I have missed something important. What is it?
It looks like you just restated the “paradox”—using one argument, it is “obvious” to pick B and using another argument, it is “obvious” to pick both.
Also, in general, do try to avoid saying something is “obvious”. It usually throws a lot of complexity and potential faults into a black box and worsens your chances of uncovering those faults by intimidating people.
The original description of the problem doesn’t mention if you know of Omega’s strategy for deciding what to place in box B, or their success history in predicting this outcome—which is obviously a very important factor.
If you know these things, then the only rational choice, obviously and by a huge margin, is to pick only box B.
If you don’t know anything other than box B may or may not contain a million dollars, and you have no reasons to believe that it’s unlikely, like in the lottery, then the only rational decision is to take both. This also seems to be completely obvious and unambiguous.
But since this community has spent a while debating this, I conclude that there’s a good chance I have missed something important. What is it?
It looks like you just restated the “paradox”—using one argument, it is “obvious” to pick B and using another argument, it is “obvious” to pick both.
Also, in general, do try to avoid saying something is “obvious”. It usually throws a lot of complexity and potential faults into a black box and worsens your chances of uncovering those faults by intimidating people.