If I’m correct, the general thrust seems to be “there is a problem with both causal decision theory and evidential decision theory, since they sometimes recommend different things, and sometimes EDT seems right, whereas at other times CDT seems right. So we need a broader theory”.
I’m not totally convinced of this need, since I think that in many ways of interpreting the Newcomb problem, EDT and CDT lead to essentially the same conclusion. They both say pre-commit to 1-boxing. If you haven’t precommitted, they both say 2-box (in some interpretations) or they both say 1-box (in other interpretations). And the cases where they come apart are metaphysically rather problematic (e.g. Omega’s predictions must be perfect or nearly-so without pre-cognition or reverse causation; Omega’s simulation of the 2-boxer must be accurate enough to catch the rare occasions when he 1-boxes, but without that simulation itself becoming sentient.)
However, again, thanks for the references and for a few new things to think about.
See TDT, UDT, ADT.
Thanks for this… I’m looking at them.
If I’m correct, the general thrust seems to be “there is a problem with both causal decision theory and evidential decision theory, since they sometimes recommend different things, and sometimes EDT seems right, whereas at other times CDT seems right. So we need a broader theory”.
I’m not totally convinced of this need, since I think that in many ways of interpreting the Newcomb problem, EDT and CDT lead to essentially the same conclusion. They both say pre-commit to 1-boxing. If you haven’t precommitted, they both say 2-box (in some interpretations) or they both say 1-box (in other interpretations). And the cases where they come apart are metaphysically rather problematic (e.g. Omega’s predictions must be perfect or nearly-so without pre-cognition or reverse causation; Omega’s simulation of the 2-boxer must be accurate enough to catch the rare occasions when he 1-boxes, but without that simulation itself becoming sentient.)
However, again, thanks for the references and for a few new things to think about.