Thanks for this selection of examples! Predict-o-Matic scenarios are some of the short term scenarios that worry me the most, and it’s great to see someone tackling them.
What I would personally want to know is “Which minimal conditions are necessary for a Predict-O-Matic scenario to appear?”. Splitting the issues as you did will definitely help in answering that question!
Thanks for this selection of examples! Predict-o-Matic scenarios are some of the short term scenarios that worry me the most, and it’s great to see someone tackling them.
What I would personally want to know is “Which minimal conditions are necessary for a Predict-O-Matic scenario to appear?”. Splitting the issues as you did will definitely help in answering that question!
One answer to that might be “either inner or outer alignment failures” in the forecasting system. See here for that division made explicit