5x Delta transmissibility seems insane. I… Don’t have gears level models which prohibit such a thing, but wouldn’t that give it a reproduction rate between 25 and 45?! Even chickenpox is only 12.
A factor 1.5-3 of that could be immune erosion, in which case the R0 would be more like 10-20. And more importantly, I don’t know anything that contradicts Zvi’s intuition that this little data shouldn’t push us far away from our priors.
5x Delta transmissibility seems insane. I… Don’t have gears level models which prohibit such a thing, but wouldn’t that give it a reproduction rate between 25 and 45?! Even chickenpox is only 12.
A factor 1.5-3 of that could be immune erosion, in which case the R0 would be more like 10-20. And more importantly, I don’t know anything that contradicts Zvi’s intuition that this little data shouldn’t push us far away from our priors.