A factor 1.5-3 of that could be immune erosion, in which case the R0 would be more like 10-20. And more importantly, I don’t know anything that contradicts Zvi’s intuition that this little data shouldn’t push us far away from our priors.
A factor 1.5-3 of that could be immune erosion, in which case the R0 would be more like 10-20. And more importantly, I don’t know anything that contradicts Zvi’s intuition that this little data shouldn’t push us far away from our priors.