The speed by which Omicron outcompeted Delta is explained by three broad contributors: - Generation time - Immunity escape - Transmissibility in susceptible populations
We learn (probabilistically) that the first factor isn’t lower than in Delta, and may even be higher (longer generation time). This leaves even more work to be done for the other two factors. You’re right that in theory, Omicron could just be crazy good at spreading in susceptible populations. However, I think that’s unlikely on priors given that you get an easy 3x increase in overall transmissibility with full immune escape, and that seems easier, mutation-wise, than the virus suddenly turning into something that’s a lot more transmissible than any coronavirus we’ve ever seen.
On the other hand, if it takes longer to show symptoms but it’s still equally transmissible since early but for longer, you get higher Rs without surprising new mechanisms of transmission. Also, it may also be escaping our current precautions instead of the immunity.
The speed by which Omicron outcompeted Delta is explained by three broad contributors:
- Generation time
- Immunity escape
- Transmissibility in susceptible populations
We learn (probabilistically) that the first factor isn’t lower than in Delta, and may even be higher (longer generation time). This leaves even more work to be done for the other two factors. You’re right that in theory, Omicron could just be crazy good at spreading in susceptible populations. However, I think that’s unlikely on priors given that you get an easy 3x increase in overall transmissibility with full immune escape, and that seems easier, mutation-wise, than the virus suddenly turning into something that’s a lot more transmissible than any coronavirus we’ve ever seen.
Makes sense to me...
On the other hand, if it takes longer to show symptoms but it’s still equally transmissible since early but for longer, you get higher Rs without surprising new mechanisms of transmission. Also, it may also be escaping our current precautions instead of the immunity.