After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts.[6]
It seems that human-level play is possible in regular Diplomacy now, judging by this tweet by Meta AI. They state that:
We entered Cicero anonymously in 40 games of Diplomacy in an online league of human players between August 19th and October 13th, 2022. Over the course of 72 hours of play involving sending 5,277 messages, Cicero ranked in the top 10% of participants who played more than one game.
Thanks for following up! I admit that things seem to be moving a bit faster than I expected, in general and in particular with Diplomacy. For more of my thoughts on the matter, see this comment, which I did not write but do mostly agree with.
It’s especially dangerous because this AI is easily made relevant in the real world as compared to AlphaZero for example. Geopolitical pressure to advance these Diplomacy AIs is far from desirable.
The difficulties in getting from Cicero to real diplomacy are similar to the difficulties in getting from OpenAI Five to self-driving cars, or from AlphaStar to commanding real troops on a battlefield in Ukraine.
It seems that human-level play is possible in regular Diplomacy now, judging by this tweet by Meta AI. They state that:
Thanks for following up! I admit that things seem to be moving a bit faster than I expected, in general and in particular with Diplomacy. For more of my thoughts on the matter, see this comment, which I did not write but do mostly agree with.
It’s especially dangerous because this AI is easily made relevant in the real world as compared to AlphaZero for example. Geopolitical pressure to advance these Diplomacy AIs is far from desirable.
Fortunately I don’t think this sort of AI would be useful for real-world diplomacy and I think governments will think so as well.
Why do you think a similar model is not useful for real-world diplomacy?
The difficulties in getting from Cicero to real diplomacy are similar to the difficulties in getting from OpenAI Five to self-driving cars, or from AlphaStar to commanding real troops on a battlefield in Ukraine.