Hard to say, it depends a lot on the rest of the details. If the performance is as good as the scaling trends would predict, it’ll be almost human-level at text prediction and multiple choice questions on diverse topics and so forth. After fine-tuning it would probably be a beast.
I suppose I’d update my 50% mark to, like, 2027 or so? IDK.
I got the idea. I would also update to a very short timeline (4-5 years) in the absence of slowdown in dense-network parameter growth l, and performance following the scaling trend.
And I was pretty scared when GPT-3 was released. As many here, I was expected further growth in that direction very soon which did not happen. So, I am less scared now.
What will be your new median? (If you observe 32 trillion parameter model in 2023)
Hard to say, it depends a lot on the rest of the details. If the performance is as good as the scaling trends would predict, it’ll be almost human-level at text prediction and multiple choice questions on diverse topics and so forth. After fine-tuning it would probably be a beast.
I suppose I’d update my 50% mark to, like, 2027 or so? IDK.
I got the idea. I would also update to a very short timeline (4-5 years) in the absence of slowdown in dense-network parameter growth l, and performance following the scaling trend. And I was pretty scared when GPT-3 was released. As many here, I was expected further growth in that direction very soon which did not happen. So, I am less scared now.