Definitely in some ways, haha. I’m feeling pretty smug about some of my less-obvious predictions, e.g. the “routing around the censorship thing to find out what models really think and feel” thing is currently happening a bunch with ChatGPT. And Diplomacy has turned out to be easier than I expected, though to be clear I was imagining humans losing to the bot even after knowing they were up against a bot, which is NOT what happened with Cicero, Cicero would have lost under those conditions.
Your prediction for 2025 sounds alarmingly like… right now.
Definitely in some ways, haha. I’m feeling pretty smug about some of my less-obvious predictions, e.g. the “routing around the censorship thing to find out what models really think and feel” thing is currently happening a bunch with ChatGPT. And Diplomacy has turned out to be easier than I expected, though to be clear I was imagining humans losing to the bot even after knowing they were up against a bot, which is NOT what happened with Cicero, Cicero would have lost under those conditions.
What else did you have in mind?