In other words, he predicted this to occur around 2023. This year. (when this was originally published)
Nitpick: He said “during the next 30 years” not “in about 30 years.” I’d guess his credence in AGI by 2023 would have been something like 75%, if it was lower he would have said 40 years if it was higher he would have said 20. So, still an impressive prediction (he’s assigning probably something like 8% credence to it happening in the 2023-2033 period, whereas most experts at the time would probably have assigned less)
Thank you for the clarification! That does seem plausible—it’s particularly interesting to read his perspective as one involved in both Science Fiction and Academia (imaginative foresight with scientific grounding)
Nitpick: He said “during the next 30 years” not “in about 30 years.” I’d guess his credence in AGI by 2023 would have been something like 75%, if it was lower he would have said 40 years if it was higher he would have said 20. So, still an impressive prediction (he’s assigning probably something like 8% credence to it happening in the 2023-2033 period, whereas most experts at the time would probably have assigned less)
Thank you for the clarification! That does seem plausible—it’s particularly interesting to read his perspective as one involved in both Science Fiction and Academia (imaginative foresight with scientific grounding)