AFAIK there is no scientific consensus on the cause of homosexuality, so we can’t really know whether de-normalising homosexuality will have any affect on its prevalence. The fact that there are gays in cultures that do not accept homosexuality shows that it cannot be all choice/normaliseation, so the question is whether normaliseation is a factor at all.
So your argument amounts to since there is no scientific consensus we should assume its 100% genetic.
Me:
it cannot be all choice/normaliseation
No, I’m arguing for agnosticism on the issue due to lack of data. I know arguments like this are generally rhetorical, but on LW it is possible that people mean exactly what they say.
But the number of gays is significantly smaller.
The number of people who publicly identify as gay is smaller.
It is possible that homosexuality is 100% genetic (or epigenetic), its also possible that its partially due to environment.
[edit: In retrospect I wasn’t communicating very clearly, because epigenetic effects are caused by environmental factors. See my next comment]
So denormalising homosexuality would result in the expected number of gays decreasing, using ‘expected’ in the probability theory scene.
No, I’m arguing for agnosticism on the issue due to lack of data.
So do you agree that denormalizing homosexuality would decrease the number of gays?
It is possible that homosexuality is 100% genetic (or epigenetic), its also possible that its partially due to environment.
Um, why are you assigning the “100% genetic” comparable probability to the “not 100% genetic hypothesis”? I could equally well say its possible its 100% due to environment.
Time to look at the evidence (I’ve read it before, but this time I’ll actually quote it). Via wikipedia:
In a 1991 study, Bailey and Pillard found that 52% of monozygotic (MZ) brothers and 22% of the dizygotic (DZ) twins were concordant for homosexuality.
A 2010 study of all adult twins in Sweden (more than 7,600 twins)[9] found that same-sex behavior was explained by both heritable factors and individual-specific environmental sources (such as prenatal environment, experience with illness and trauma, as well as peer groups, and sexual experiences)
Biometric modeling revealed that, in men, genetic effects explained .34–.39 of the variance [of sexual orientation], the shared environment .00, and the individual-specific environment .61–.66 of the variance. Corresponding estimates among women were .18–.19 for genetic factors, .16–.17 for shared environmental, and .64–.66 for unique environmental factors. Although wide confidence intervals suggest cautious interpretation, the results are consistent with moderate, primarily genetic, familial effects, and moderate to large effects of the nonshared environment (social and biological) on same-sex sexual behavior.
Schooling is a shared environment, so my estimate is that denormalizing homosexuality would have barely any effect upon male gays and might decrease lesbians by at most 16%.
Of course, if all Swedish people are tolerant of homosexuality, then the study would not have had a chance to detect the effect of de-normalisation.
Um, why are you assigning the “100% genetic” comparable probability to the “not 100% genetic hypothesis”? I could equally well say its possible its 100% due to environment.
When I said this:
It is possible that homosexuality is 100% genetic (or epigenetic), its also possible that its partially due to environment.
In retrospect I wasn’t communicating very clearly, because epigenetic effects are caused by environmental factors.
So to be more precise, its 34-39% genetic and some percent epigenetic.
Schooling is a shared environment, so my estimate is that denormalizing homosexuality would have barely any effect upon male gays and might decrease lesbians by at most 16%.
So did the study contain twins where one of them didn’t go to school.
Of course, if all Swedish people are tolerant of homosexuality, then the study would not have had a chance to detect the effect of de-normalisation.
I’m not sure about all, but Sweden is probably a rather uniform environment these days.
So did the study contain twins where one of them didn’t go to school.
Good point! I dunno much about Swedish schooling, but a brief search seems to indicate that there are religious schools, which presumably do not normalise homosexuality to the same extent as the prog schools. Its also possible maybe some of them are homeschooled?
Your turn, do you have any evidence that de-normalisation would decrease the prevalence of gays?
Good point! I dunno much about Swedish schooling, but a brief search seems to indicate that there are religious schools, which presumably do not normalise homosexuality to the same extent as the prog schools.
Given how progressive the Church of Sweden is, they probably do.
For starters the fact that there are a lot more gays among the younger generation, i.e., the people who grew up while it was being normalized.
I assume Sweden also has Catholics/Jews/Muslims.
According to Wikipedia 5% Muslim, 2% Catholic and fewer Jews. Well the Muslims are poorly assimilated to quite possible didn’t participate in the study at all, in any case I doubt the study contains a case of two twins one of whom was raised Muslim and the other wasn’t. And I doubt there are many Catholic schools there.
It’s also true that sperm counts are dropping, and I would guess that there is a common cause. Maybe because plastics leak estrogen-mimicking chemicals?
That’s one theory. I’m more inclined to suspect memetic causes, as Jim puts it here:
Environmentalists suggests it is estrogen like compounds in the water supply. I am inclined to believe it is metaphorical estrogen in the metaphorical water supply. Society and the education system has been treating masculinity as an evil pathology, with ever increasing severity. Maybe the problem is that we need to encourage boys to be men, to be manly, to be tough.
Ok. I didn’t think it would be as low as 2%, which does lower the utility of that study.
Environmentalists suggests it is estrogen like compounds in the water supply. I am inclined to believe it is metaphorical estrogen in the metaphorical water supply. Society and the education system has been treating masculinity as an evil pathology, with ever increasing severity. Maybe the problem is that we need to encourage boys to be men, to be manly, to be tough.
Since testosterone levels change due to danger, dominance, talking to attractive women etc, I would say there is some theoretical justification for this.
I’m more inclined to suspect memetic causes,
We need more than an inclination, we need empirical data. For instance, if women are being more dominant and this is causing homosexuality, then a testable hypothesis is that socially dominant groups ought to be less gay. Do people from working class backgrounds have higher rates of homosexuality than elites?
For instance, if women are being more dominant and this is causing homosexuality, then a testable hypothesis is that socially dominant groups ought to be less gay.
Its more complicated since being socially dominant is not quite the same as being locally dominant in everyday life. Look at your typical “bad neighborhood” the people there aren’t socially dominant. But there are a lot of people there being dominant often violently so.
Society and the education system has been treating masculinity as an evil pathology, with ever increasing severity. Maybe the problem is that we need to encourage boys to be men, to be manly, to be tough.
Looking at okcupid data gay men are considerably less adventurous, aggressive, violent and confident than straight men, with the opposite pattern in lesbians. Pity they don’t have the data for bisexuals.
Still, do we know that toughness causes heterosexuality, rather than vice versa, or than something else causing both? Otherwise Jim’s proposal doesn’t make much sense.
A better counter-argument to this just occurred to me: if Sweden’s attitude to homosexuality was entirely uniform, then there would not be a shared environment effect upon the prevalence of lesbianism, which there is.
AFAIK there is no scientific consensus on the cause of homosexuality, so we can’t really know whether de-normalising homosexuality will have any affect on its prevalence. The fact that there are gays in cultures that do not accept homosexuality shows that it cannot be all choice/normaliseation, so the question is whether normaliseation is a factor at all.
So your argument amounts to since there is no scientific consensus we should assume its 100% genetic.
But the number of gays is significantly smaller.
You:
Me:
No, I’m arguing for agnosticism on the issue due to lack of data. I know arguments like this are generally rhetorical, but on LW it is possible that people mean exactly what they say.
The number of people who publicly identify as gay is smaller.
It is possible that homosexuality is 100% genetic (or epigenetic), its also possible that its partially due to environment. [edit: In retrospect I wasn’t communicating very clearly, because epigenetic effects are caused by environmental factors. See my next comment]
So denormalising homosexuality would result in the expected number of gays decreasing, using ‘expected’ in the probability theory scene.
So do you agree that denormalizing homosexuality would decrease the number of gays?
Um, why are you assigning the “100% genetic” comparable probability to the “not 100% genetic hypothesis”? I could equally well say its possible its 100% due to environment.
Time to look at the evidence (I’ve read it before, but this time I’ll actually quote it). Via wikipedia:
Schooling is a shared environment, so my estimate is that denormalizing homosexuality would have barely any effect upon male gays and might decrease lesbians by at most 16%.
Of course, if all Swedish people are tolerant of homosexuality, then the study would not have had a chance to detect the effect of de-normalisation.
When I said this:
In retrospect I wasn’t communicating very clearly, because epigenetic effects are caused by environmental factors.
So to be more precise, its 34-39% genetic and some percent epigenetic.
So did the study contain twins where one of them didn’t go to school.
I’m not sure about all, but Sweden is probably a rather uniform environment these days.
Good point! I dunno much about Swedish schooling, but a brief search seems to indicate that there are religious schools, which presumably do not normalise homosexuality to the same extent as the prog schools. Its also possible maybe some of them are homeschooled?
Your turn, do you have any evidence that de-normalisation would decrease the prevalence of gays?
Given how progressive the Church of Sweden is, they probably do.
For starters the fact that there are a lot more gays among the younger generation, i.e., the people who grew up while it was being normalized.
Will the two of you taboo “gays”? Do you mean men who are attracted to men, or men who have sex with men? Some of the former don’t act upon their attraction.
(And I have a pet hypothesis that these men have historically made up a sizeable fraction of Catholic priests, but that’s another story.)
I assume Sweden also has Catholics/Jews/Muslims.
It’s also true that sperm counts are dropping, and I would guess that there is a common cause. Maybe because plastics leak estrogen-mimicking chemicals?
According to Wikipedia 5% Muslim, 2% Catholic and fewer Jews. Well the Muslims are poorly assimilated to quite possible didn’t participate in the study at all, in any case I doubt the study contains a case of two twins one of whom was raised Muslim and the other wasn’t. And I doubt there are many Catholic schools there.
That’s one theory. I’m more inclined to suspect memetic causes, as Jim puts it here:
Ok. I didn’t think it would be as low as 2%, which does lower the utility of that study.
Since testosterone levels change due to danger, dominance, talking to attractive women etc, I would say there is some theoretical justification for this.
We need more than an inclination, we need empirical data. For instance, if women are being more dominant and this is causing homosexuality, then a testable hypothesis is that socially dominant groups ought to be less gay. Do people from working class backgrounds have higher rates of homosexuality than elites?
Its more complicated since being socially dominant is not quite the same as being locally dominant in everyday life. Look at your typical “bad neighborhood” the people there aren’t socially dominant. But there are a lot of people there being dominant often violently so.
But I imagine it would at least correlate.
Anyway, there should be other ways to test the idea. For a start, are the children of feminists disproportionately gay?
Yeah, because no gay men are manly and tough.
Looking at okcupid data gay men are considerably less adventurous, aggressive, violent and confident than straight men, with the opposite pattern in lesbians. Pity they don’t have the data for bisexuals.
Good point. Grandparent retracted.
Still, do we know that toughness causes heterosexuality, rather than vice versa, or than something else causing both? Otherwise Jim’s proposal doesn’t make much sense.
(Upvoted for changing your mind easily)
I would assume that its hormone levels in utero or in adolescence as the common cause.
Would you also point that out about twin studies on traits other than homosexuality?
Yes, as it happens.
A better counter-argument to this just occurred to me: if Sweden’s attitude to homosexuality was entirely uniform, then there would not be a shared environment effect upon the prevalence of lesbianism, which there is.