By “positive EV bets” I meant positive EV with respect to shared values, not with respect to personal gain.
Edit: Maybe your view is that leaders should take this bets anyway even though they know they are likely to result in a forced retirement. (E.g. ignoring the disincentive.) I was actually thinking of the disincentive effect as: you are actually a good leader, so you remaining in power would be good, therefore you should avoid actions that result in you losing power for unjustified reasons. Therefore you should avoid making positive EV bets (as making these bets is now overall negative EV as it will result in a forced leadership transition which is bad). More minimally, you strongly select for leaders which don’t make such bets.
“ETA” commonly is short for “estimated time of arrival”. I understand you are using it to mean “edited” but I don’t quite know what it is short for, and also it seems like using this is just confusing for people in general.
I don’t see how this is relevant to my comment.
By “positive EV bets” I meant positive EV with respect to shared values, not with respect to personal gain.
Edit: Maybe your view is that leaders should take this bets anyway even though they know they are likely to result in a forced retirement. (E.g. ignoring the disincentive.) I was actually thinking of the disincentive effect as: you are actually a good leader, so you remaining in power would be good, therefore you should avoid actions that result in you losing power for unjustified reasons. Therefore you should avoid making positive EV bets (as making these bets is now overall negative EV as it will result in a forced leadership transition which is bad). More minimally, you strongly select for leaders which don’t make such bets.
“ETA” commonly is short for “estimated time of arrival”. I understand you are using it to mean “edited” but I don’t quite know what it is short for, and also it seems like using this is just confusing for people in general.
ETA = edit time addition
I should probably not use this term, I think I picked up this habit from some other people on LW.
Oh, weird. I always thought “ETA” means “Edited To Add”.
I didn’t know it meant either.
The Internet seems to agree with you. I wonder why I remember “edit time addition”.