I think it’d be useful to calibrate the semantics of purely intuitive valuation of statements, all else equal. Once you start systematically processing the evidence by means other than gut feeling, you construct other sources of evidence, but knowing what the intuition really tells you is important in its own right.
If you can’t tell 1 in 1,000 from 1 in 1,000,000, there should be a concept for that level of belief, with all beliefs in it assigned odds in between, depending on empirical distribution of statements you ask questions about. If you apply other techniques to update on that estimate, fine, but that’s different data. Maybe the concepts of ranges of probability are not very good, and it’s more useful to explicitly compensate for affection, complexity of the statement or imagery, etc, but those are not about evidence per se, only about deciphering the gut feeling.
For this purpose, the already existing concepts of “a little”, “probably”, “unlikely” may be very important, if only their probabilistic semantics can be extracted, probably through estimating the concepts fitting each of a set of statements specifically constructed around a given one to extract its odds.
I think it’d be useful to calibrate the semantics of purely intuitive valuation of statements, all else equal. Once you start systematically processing the evidence by means other than gut feeling, you construct other sources of evidence, but knowing what the intuition really tells you is important in its own right.
If you can’t tell 1 in 1,000 from 1 in 1,000,000, there should be a concept for that level of belief, with all beliefs in it assigned odds in between, depending on empirical distribution of statements you ask questions about. If you apply other techniques to update on that estimate, fine, but that’s different data. Maybe the concepts of ranges of probability are not very good, and it’s more useful to explicitly compensate for affection, complexity of the statement or imagery, etc, but those are not about evidence per se, only about deciphering the gut feeling.
For this purpose, the already existing concepts of “a little”, “probably”, “unlikely” may be very important, if only their probabilistic semantics can be extracted, probably through estimating the concepts fitting each of a set of statements specifically constructed around a given one to extract its odds.