You are correct, and that simpler model gives an even greater risk. I’m skeptical about social distancing because hospitals become overcrowded once 1/1000 of the population gets infected, and they need one month to process the hospitalized. With that pace, the quarantine would need to last 83 years. Even if this estimate is wrong by 10x that implies quarantine duration of 8 years. So much about flattening the curve. The best hope is a vaccine, so the quarantine lasts for approx 1 year, but maybe much shorter if more resources are invested and barriers (such as rigorous testing requirements, China could be of help here) somehow avoided.
Lombardy has a population of 10M, at 5K confirmed infections they got overcrowded, 1/2000 of the population got confirmed infected, let’s say the true number was 1/1000. I didn’t check the Wei Dai’s math but his number is similar “0.1% of Hubei’s population have a confirmed infection, and its hospitals are already at the breaking point”.
“In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.”
And they have 10x hospital beds compared to the US.
By the way, that’s another Roko, I’m not that guy :)
I was figuring there’s 1 open hospital bed per 1000 people where I live (USA), which lets ~0.5% get infected per month. Are you sure it wasn’t 0.1% hospitalized, rather than 0.1% infected? It doesn’t really matter for this conversation, but it’s still something I’d like to know.
I think we’re largely in agreement. The question is, over a year (antivirals could be faster, fingers crossed), will people get sick of the increasingly large piles of bodies and demand more social distancing, or will they get sick of social distancing and demand less of it? Or swing back and forth each month??? It’s hard to say...
You are correct, and that simpler model gives an even greater risk. I’m skeptical about social distancing because hospitals become overcrowded once 1/1000 of the population gets infected, and they need one month to process the hospitalized. With that pace, the quarantine would need to last 83 years. Even if this estimate is wrong by 10x that implies quarantine duration of 8 years. So much about flattening the curve. The best hope is a vaccine, so the quarantine lasts for approx 1 year, but maybe much shorter if more resources are invested and barriers (such as rigorous testing requirements, China could be of help here) somehow avoided.
Wei Dai already talked about it here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RukXjEvMfqDKRJaup/what-will-be-the-big-picture-implications-of-the-coronavirus?commentId=p6xZhhJLMBRdfXhe5
Lombardy has a population of 10M, at 5K confirmed infections they got overcrowded, 1/2000 of the population got confirmed infected, let’s say the true number was 1/1000. I didn’t check the Wei Dai’s math but his number is similar “0.1% of Hubei’s population have a confirmed infection, and its hospitals are already at the breaking point”.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/04/asia-pacific/thousands-wait-hospital-beds-south-korea-coronavirus-cases-surge/
“In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.”
And they have 10x hospital beds compared to the US.
By the way, that’s another Roko, I’m not that guy :)
Oops, sorry confusing my Roko’s!!
I was figuring there’s 1 open hospital bed per 1000 people where I live (USA), which lets ~0.5% get infected per month. Are you sure it wasn’t 0.1% hospitalized, rather than 0.1% infected? It doesn’t really matter for this conversation, but it’s still something I’d like to know.
I think we’re largely in agreement. The question is, over a year (antivirals could be faster, fingers crossed), will people get sick of the increasingly large piles of bodies and demand more social distancing, or will they get sick of social distancing and demand less of it? Or swing back and forth each month??? It’s hard to say...