If you look at my estimate I’m already effectively predicting that their CFR will increase via predicting additional deaths. I think it makes more sense to predict future death outcomes in the current cohort of patients we are computing IFR rather than predicting future CFR changes based on how they changed in other countries and then back computing that into IFR.
The CFR can change over time not only because of delays in deaths vs stage of epidemic but also due to changes in testing strategy and or coverage, or even changes in coroner report standards or case counting standards (as happened at least once with china).
In terms of true number of infected, I’m predicting that SK has on the order of 100K to 200K cases and say 4K in Iceland, and I don’t find this up to ~50x difference very surprising. Firstly, it’s only about an 18 day difference in terms of first seed case at 25% daily growth.
SK’s first recorded case was much earlier in Jan 20 vs Feb 28 for Iceland. SK’s epidemic exploded quickly in a cult, Iceland’s arrived much later when they had the benefit of seeing the pandemic hit other countries—they are just quite different scenarios.
In terms of true number of infected, I’m predicting that SK has on the order of 100K to 200K cases and say 4K in Iceland, and I don’t find this up to ~50x difference very surprising. Firstly, it’s only about an 18 day difference in terms of first seed case at 25% daily growth.
I see. BTW our confidence intervals for the IFR have some overlap: 0.4% is my lower bound and your higher bound. :)
That’s interesting. Over the weekend I wrote a monte carlo simulation for the Iceland data incorporating a bunch of stuff including a lognormal fit to know median and mean time from confirmation to death. Going to write it up, but the TLDR: the posterior assigns most of it’s mass to the 0.2 to 0.4 range for reasonable settings. Want to do something similar for Diamond Princess and other places.
I expect the real IFR will vary of course based on age structure, cofactors (air pollution seems to be important, especially in Italy), and of course the rather larger differences in coroner reporting standards across jurisdictions and over time.
You can avoid alot of that by looking for excess mortality—which right now seems null in europe except for in Italy. But Spain has about the same cases and deaths per capita and no excess mortality.
If you look at my estimate I’m already effectively predicting that their CFR will increase via predicting additional deaths. I think it makes more sense to predict future death outcomes in the current cohort of patients we are computing IFR rather than predicting future CFR changes based on how they changed in other countries and then back computing that into IFR.
The CFR can change over time not only because of delays in deaths vs stage of epidemic but also due to changes in testing strategy and or coverage, or even changes in coroner report standards or case counting standards (as happened at least once with china).
In terms of true number of infected, I’m predicting that SK has on the order of 100K to 200K cases and say 4K in Iceland, and I don’t find this up to ~50x difference very surprising. Firstly, it’s only about an 18 day difference in terms of first seed case at 25% daily growth.
SK’s first recorded case was much earlier in Jan 20 vs Feb 28 for Iceland. SK’s epidemic exploded quickly in a cult, Iceland’s arrived much later when they had the benefit of seeing the pandemic hit other countries—they are just quite different scenarios.
I see. BTW our confidence intervals for the IFR have some overlap: 0.4% is my lower bound and your higher bound. :)
Of note:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
The latest professionals are suspecting a total infection-to-death rate of a normal population (not a cruise ship) of ~0.6%.
That’s interesting. Over the weekend I wrote a monte carlo simulation for the Iceland data incorporating a bunch of stuff including a lognormal fit to know median and mean time from confirmation to death. Going to write it up, but the TLDR: the posterior assigns most of it’s mass to the 0.2 to 0.4 range for reasonable settings. Want to do something similar for Diamond Princess and other places.
I expect the real IFR will vary of course based on age structure, cofactors (air pollution seems to be important, especially in Italy), and of course the rather larger differences in coroner reporting standards across jurisdictions and over time.
You can avoid alot of that by looking for excess mortality—which right now seems null in europe except for in Italy. But Spain has about the same cases and deaths per capita and no excess mortality.