Contact tracing and isolation empirically does work, since places that did them did not need to go into the severe lockdowns that stopped spread elsewhere. It would not empirically work if most people were asymptomatic. Additionally, if most cases were asymptomatic or weakly symptomatic there would be few cases of multiple close contacts becoming ill. These are common. There’s even a case study of 45 out of 60 members of a choir all becoming ill at once...
Asymptomatic transmission is definitely happening, both in the period before symptoms appear and in the 20-50% of people who do not show symptoms. Contact tracing catches these people once one of their contacts—that gave it to them OR got it from them—becomes visible and all their contacts are quarantined.
The decline in fevers is probably mostly flu going away, with a lower replication number that requires less distancing to die out.
Additionally, if most cases were asymptomatic or weakly symptomatic there would be few cases of multiple close contacts becoming ill. These are common.
Contact tracing and isolation empirically does work, since places that did them did not need to go into the severe lockdowns that stopped spread elsewhere. It would not empirically work if most people were asymptomatic. Additionally, if most cases were asymptomatic or weakly symptomatic there would be few cases of multiple close contacts becoming ill. These are common. There’s even a case study of 45 out of 60 members of a choir all becoming ill at once...
Asymptomatic transmission is definitely happening, both in the period before symptoms appear and in the 20-50% of people who do not show symptoms. Contact tracing catches these people once one of their contacts—that gave it to them OR got it from them—becomes visible and all their contacts are quarantined.
The decline in fevers is probably mostly flu going away, with a lower replication number that requires less distancing to die out.
+1
I think this point is really underappreciated.