Two seconds from prediction end to decision: There are ~5e6 deaths due to stroke annually in the world (population ~5e9) That’s a rate of about 1e3 person-years per death due to stroke, or 3e10 person-seconds per stroke death.
If Omega only asked everyone on the planet once, at a random time, and it took them only two seconds to respond, it’s about even money that one of them would die from a stroke before they could answer. (Plus one who had the onset of a fatal stroke during that period but made a choice prior to dying, and an ungodly number who were currently experiencing one).
Rationally? Only if I had sufficient evidence that I was 1-in-a-billion with regards to Omega being wrong to pull my posterior estimate to less than about 50%. In actuality? Probably if I thought there was at least a one in six chance that I could pull it off, based on gut feelings.
Even assuming that the average person can decide in two seconds...
Omega can’t predict the stroke on the two-second timeframe; it’s too busy finishing the simulation of the player’s brain that started four seconds ago to notice that he’s going to throw a clot as soon as he stands up. (Because Omega has to perform a limited simulation of the universe in order to complete the simulation before the universe does; in the extreme case, I allow a gamma or some other particle to interact with a sodium ion and trigger a neuron that makes the prediction wrong. Omega can’t predict that without directly breaking physics as we know it.
Two seconds from prediction end to decision: There are ~5e6 deaths due to stroke annually in the world (population ~5e9) That’s a rate of about 1e3 person-years per death due to stroke, or 3e10 person-seconds per stroke death.
If Omega only asked everyone on the planet once, at a random time, and it took them only two seconds to respond, it’s about even money that one of them would die from a stroke before they could answer. (Plus one who had the onset of a fatal stroke during that period but made a choice prior to dying, and an ungodly number who were currently experiencing one).
The problem also works if Omega’s failure rate is 1 in 1.5e10 or even much larger, so long as it’s much smaller than about 50.05%.
Assume Omega has been observed to get the predictions right 999,999,999 times every billion. Would you two-boxes in hope that it gets you wrong?
Rationally? Only if I had sufficient evidence that I was 1-in-a-billion with regards to Omega being wrong to pull my posterior estimate to less than about 50%. In actuality? Probably if I thought there was at least a one in six chance that I could pull it off, based on gut feelings.
What, and Omega can’t figure out how the stroke will affect their cognition on a two second timeframe?
Even assuming that the average person can decide in two seconds...
Omega can’t predict the stroke on the two-second timeframe; it’s too busy finishing the simulation of the player’s brain that started four seconds ago to notice that he’s going to throw a clot as soon as he stands up. (Because Omega has to perform a limited simulation of the universe in order to complete the simulation before the universe does; in the extreme case, I allow a gamma or some other particle to interact with a sodium ion and trigger a neuron that makes the prediction wrong. Omega can’t predict that without directly breaking physics as we know it.
You think you know a great deal more about Omega than the hypothetical allows you to deduce.
The gamma rays will produce a very very small error rate.
The hypothetical only allows for zero error; if Omega knows everything that I will encounter, Omega has superluminal information. QED.