At the time you are asked to make the decision, taking both boxes gets you more money than taking one box does.
People who take one box take $1,000,000 instead of $1,001,000; people who take two boxes take $1000 instead of $0.
Um, huh?
I don’t enjoy word games, but what does “instead of” mean here?
The one-boxers had a choice between $1m and $1m+1k; the two boxers had a choice between $0 and $1k. The “instead of” refers to their reward if they had done the opposite of what it had already been predicted that they do.
The problem statement is assuming a perfect predictor, though, so that ‘instead of’ clause is mostly noise.
Yeah, it designates the counterfactual; what they didn’t take.
It’s not referring to a possible state of reality.
In which case there aren’t possible states of reality; only exemplified and counterfactual states.
At the time you are asked to make the decision, taking both boxes gets you more money than taking one box does.
People who take one box take $1,000,000 instead of $1,001,000; people who take two boxes take $1000 instead of $0.
Um, huh?
I don’t enjoy word games, but what does “instead of” mean here?
The one-boxers had a choice between $1m and $1m+1k; the two boxers had a choice between $0 and $1k. The “instead of” refers to their reward if they had done the opposite of what it had already been predicted that they do.
The problem statement is assuming a perfect predictor, though, so that ‘instead of’ clause is mostly noise.
Yeah, it designates the counterfactual; what they didn’t take.
It’s not referring to a possible state of reality.
In which case there aren’t possible states of reality; only exemplified and counterfactual states.