If they’re fictional scenarios, then you’re matching the taste of the students (in fictional answers) against the taste of the teachers; that may work to propagate a school, but how do you keep the tastes real?
Then use scenarios that actually happened. From history, business, people’s personal lives, et cetera. For example: “Here is a brief description of the Byzantine Empire in 1200. The Emperor decided to change the tax policy in the following way. Predict what happened.” Gives an unfair advantage to anyone who knows a lot of history (or in this case economics), but if you vary the cases enough and use little-known enough examples you might be able to control for that.
Another example: “Here’s a psych profile of my friend John, and a psych profile of his girlfriend Sally. They started dating ten years ago. Predict what happened.”
The “right answer” in the fictional scenarios is determined by the teacher. So you’re testing the degree to which the student matches the teacher, not the degree to which the student matches reality.
How can you be sure that in the historical scenario, the Byzantine Emperor actually did the “right thing”, i.e. he wouldn’t have done better by doing something else? It’s the teachers who have to decide that. Also, what if the Emperor got the “right answer” for the wrong reasons, and the student also got the “right answer” for the wrong reasons? It’s up to the teacher to decide that as well. The best thing you can do is have several groups of rationalists selecting the scenarios and verifying the students’ answers, but ultimately, when using either real life or fictional scenarios, you’re comparing the teachers to the students.
Same thing with measuring “success” of people in real life. They could’ve arrived at the correct answer for the wrong reasons, it’s up to the teachers to decide whether the reasons were right or wrong, i.e. whether they were actually rational or just lucky.
In order to assess the rationality of the students you need to use the sort of things/tests that convinced you that the teachers are rational in the first place. The same things that make the teacher’s tastes real can be matched against the student’s tastes.
If they’re fictional scenarios, then you’re matching the taste of the students (in fictional answers) against the taste of the teachers; that may work to propagate a school, but how do you keep the tastes real?
Then use scenarios that actually happened. From history, business, people’s personal lives, et cetera. For example: “Here is a brief description of the Byzantine Empire in 1200. The Emperor decided to change the tax policy in the following way. Predict what happened.” Gives an unfair advantage to anyone who knows a lot of history (or in this case economics), but if you vary the cases enough and use little-known enough examples you might be able to control for that.
Another example: “Here’s a psych profile of my friend John, and a psych profile of his girlfriend Sally. They started dating ten years ago. Predict what happened.”
I’m sorry, I don’t understand your question.
The “right answer” in the fictional scenarios is determined by the teacher. So you’re testing the degree to which the student matches the teacher, not the degree to which the student matches reality.
How can you be sure that in the historical scenario, the Byzantine Emperor actually did the “right thing”, i.e. he wouldn’t have done better by doing something else? It’s the teachers who have to decide that. Also, what if the Emperor got the “right answer” for the wrong reasons, and the student also got the “right answer” for the wrong reasons? It’s up to the teacher to decide that as well. The best thing you can do is have several groups of rationalists selecting the scenarios and verifying the students’ answers, but ultimately, when using either real life or fictional scenarios, you’re comparing the teachers to the students.
Same thing with measuring “success” of people in real life. They could’ve arrived at the correct answer for the wrong reasons, it’s up to the teachers to decide whether the reasons were right or wrong, i.e. whether they were actually rational or just lucky.
In order to assess the rationality of the students you need to use the sort of things/tests that convinced you that the teachers are rational in the first place. The same things that make the teacher’s tastes real can be matched against the student’s tastes.