Our memory tends to contain less and less information. We forget certain things, and our memory about others become simplified, and a complex article boils down to “X is bad, Y is good, try to do better”.
One unexpected consequence of this is how it impacts our sense of probability: to describe the probability binary, it only requires 1 bit of information, but to describe the probability as a percentage, you need a lot more bits!
Because of this, a person’s confidence in the most likely hypothesis in his opinion tends to 1 over time, and the probability of all other hypotheses that he had time to think about tends to 0. Every time he remembers a hypothesis, a person will less and less often remember the nuance that “the probability of hypothesis A = X”, he will simply remember “And this is the truth (that mean the probability of A = 100%)”.
Every time you remember a hypothesis, this effect contributes. Therefore, just after thinking about a hypotheses, you should write down your confidence. Also, you should to remember this bias to notice it, when you use a hypothesis you thought a lot of time ago.
PS: memory is bad, writing is good, try to do better.
Your memory eventually drives confidence in each hypothesis to 1 or 0
Our memory tends to contain less and less information. We forget certain things, and our memory about others become simplified, and a complex article boils down to “X is bad, Y is good, try to do better”.
One unexpected consequence of this is how it impacts our sense of probability: to describe the probability binary, it only requires 1 bit of information, but to describe the probability as a percentage, you need a lot more bits!
Because of this, a person’s confidence in the most likely hypothesis in his opinion tends to 1 over time, and the probability of all other hypotheses that he had time to think about tends to 0. Every time he remembers a hypothesis, a person will less and less often remember the nuance that “the probability of hypothesis A = X”, he will simply remember “And this is the truth (that mean the probability of A = 100%)”.
Every time you remember a hypothesis, this effect contributes. Therefore, just after thinking about a hypotheses, you should write down your confidence. Also, you should to remember this bias to notice it, when you use a hypothesis you thought a lot of time ago.
PS: memory is bad, writing is good, try to do better.