I wrote this specifically aimed at the case of “in the thought experiment where humanity got 12 orders of magnitude more compute this year, what would happen in the next 12 months?”
I liked the post that Daniel wrote about that and wanted to expand on it. My claim is that even if everything that was mentioned in that post was tried and failed, that there would still be these things to try. They are algorithms which already exist, which could be scaled up if we suddenly had an absurd amount of compute. Not all arguments about why standard approaches like Transformers fail also apply to these alternate approaches.
Right, but I don’t yet understand what you predict happens. Let’s say we got 12 OOMs of compute and tried these things. Do we now have AGI? I predict no.
Ah, gotcha. I predict yes, with quite high confidence (like 95%), for 12 OOMs and using the Blue Brain Project. The others I place only small confidence in (maybe 5% each).
I really think the BBP has enough detail in its model to make something very like a human neocortex, and capable of being an AGI, if scaled up.
I wrote this specifically aimed at the case of “in the thought experiment where humanity got 12 orders of magnitude more compute this year, what would happen in the next 12 months?” I liked the post that Daniel wrote about that and wanted to expand on it. My claim is that even if everything that was mentioned in that post was tried and failed, that there would still be these things to try. They are algorithms which already exist, which could be scaled up if we suddenly had an absurd amount of compute. Not all arguments about why standard approaches like Transformers fail also apply to these alternate approaches.
Right, but I don’t yet understand what you predict happens. Let’s say we got 12 OOMs of compute and tried these things. Do we now have AGI? I predict no.
Ah, gotcha. I predict yes, with quite high confidence (like 95%), for 12 OOMs and using the Blue Brain Project. The others I place only small confidence in (maybe 5% each). I really think the BBP has enough detail in its model to make something very like a human neocortex, and capable of being an AGI, if scaled up.