Right, but I don’t yet understand what you predict happens. Let’s say we got 12 OOMs of compute and tried these things. Do we now have AGI? I predict no.
Ah, gotcha. I predict yes, with quite high confidence (like 95%), for 12 OOMs and using the Blue Brain Project. The others I place only small confidence in (maybe 5% each).
I really think the BBP has enough detail in its model to make something very like a human neocortex, and capable of being an AGI, if scaled up.
Right, but I don’t yet understand what you predict happens. Let’s say we got 12 OOMs of compute and tried these things. Do we now have AGI? I predict no.
Ah, gotcha. I predict yes, with quite high confidence (like 95%), for 12 OOMs and using the Blue Brain Project. The others I place only small confidence in (maybe 5% each). I really think the BBP has enough detail in its model to make something very like a human neocortex, and capable of being an AGI, if scaled up.