Thanks for doing this! This sort of discussion is fairly important to AGI timelines estimates, I think, because e.g. if we conclude that +12 OOMs would be 80% likely to work given todays ideas… etc. (BTW I think you linked to the wrong post at the beginning, I think you meant to link to this.)
I’m not convinced yet. Rohin makes some good objections below and then also it would help if you explained how these compute estimates convert into probability-that-it-would-work estimates. What are the ways you can think of that Blue Brain with +12 OOMs wouldn’t work? Having enumerated those ways, how likely are each of them? And how likely is it that there are other ways you haven’t thought of?
Yes, I’ll fix that link [edit: fixed]. I have not yet thought hard about failure modes and probabilities for these cases. I can work on that and let you know what I come up with.
Thanks for doing this! This sort of discussion is fairly important to AGI timelines estimates, I think, because e.g. if we conclude that +12 OOMs would be 80% likely to work given todays ideas… etc. (BTW I think you linked to the wrong post at the beginning, I think you meant to link to this.)
I’m not convinced yet. Rohin makes some good objections below and then also it would help if you explained how these compute estimates convert into probability-that-it-would-work estimates. What are the ways you can think of that Blue Brain with +12 OOMs wouldn’t work? Having enumerated those ways, how likely are each of them? And how likely is it that there are other ways you haven’t thought of?
Yes, I’ll fix that link [edit: fixed]. I have not yet thought hard about failure modes and probabilities for these cases. I can work on that and let you know what I come up with.