At D, the point you’re made aware, you know that you’re in the proportion of people who live.
Then what about introducing a C’ between C and D: You are told the initial rules. Then, later you are told about the killing, and then, even later, that the killing had already happened and that you were spared.
Thinking this through a bit more, you’re right—this really makes no difference. (And in fact, re-reading my post, my reasoning is rather confused - I think I ended up agreeing with the conclusion while also (incorrectly) disagreeing with the argument.)
Then what about introducing a C’ between C and D: You are told the initial rules. Then, later you are told about the killing, and then, even later, that the killing had already happened and that you were spared.
What would you say the odds were there?
Thinking this through a bit more, you’re right—this really makes no difference. (And in fact, re-reading my post, my reasoning is rather confused - I think I ended up agreeing with the conclusion while also (incorrectly) disagreeing with the argument.)