Not only it assumes independence, it also assumes that the two competing theories have exactly the same postulates except for a single extra one. That is typically not how things work in real life.
I like to think of it as an extension of the conjunction fallacy; the probability of A and B being true can’t be higher than the probability of either A or B; adding new conditions can only make the probability stay the same or go down.
Not only it assumes independence, it also assumes that the two competing theories have exactly the same postulates except for a single extra one. That is typically not how things work in real life.
Er, no it doesn’t. Where are you getting this?
From here: