What would be the consequence of Belarus joining the western military alliance in terms of Russia’s nuclear strategy? Let’s say that in the near future Belarus joins NATO, and gives the US free hand in installing any offensive or defensive (ABM) Nuclear weapon system on Belarus territory. Would this dramatically increase the Russian fear of a successful nuclear first strike by the US?
US could put the same capabilities now in Estonia or Ukraine, so not much change in nuclear strategy here. However, Russia has important long distance communication center with nuclear submarinies in Belarus.
Also, Kaliningrad district will be much more vulnerable as well as export-import routes. In case of ground invasion, Belarus is also located strategically, and both Napoleon and Hitler quickly advanced through Minsk in Moscow direction.
The biggest problem for Putin is that if Lukashenko fails, he will be next. So he is not interested in his demise, but he wants to make Lukashenko as weak as possible and then annex Belorussia. He tried to do it last year, and he then hoped to become a president of a new country consisting of Belarus and Russia. Lukashenko said no, and Putin had to use his plan B: the change of constitution to remain in power after 2024.
What would be the consequence of Belarus joining the western military alliance in terms of Russia’s nuclear strategy? Let’s say that in the near future Belarus joins NATO, and gives the US free hand in installing any offensive or defensive (ABM) Nuclear weapon system on Belarus territory. Would this dramatically increase the Russian fear of a successful nuclear first strike by the US?
US could put the same capabilities now in Estonia or Ukraine, so not much change in nuclear strategy here. However, Russia has important long distance communication center with nuclear submarinies in Belarus.
Also, Kaliningrad district will be much more vulnerable as well as export-import routes. In case of ground invasion, Belarus is also located strategically, and both Napoleon and Hitler quickly advanced through Minsk in Moscow direction.
The biggest problem for Putin is that if Lukashenko fails, he will be next. So he is not interested in his demise, but he wants to make Lukashenko as weak as possible and then annex Belorussia. He tried to do it last year, and he then hoped to become a president of a new country consisting of Belarus and Russia. Lukashenko said no, and Putin had to use his plan B: the change of constitution to remain in power after 2024.