While the lack of fuel was a serious concern to the Romans (even during the time of Augustus), I don’t think either the population pressures or the lack of fuel had much of an effect on the decline of the Empire.
After the 3rd century, Rome was more likely to face under population than overpopulation. It was estimated that the Crisis of the 3rd Century led to the deaths of about 1⁄3 of the Empire. Afterwards, (particularly in the West) the severe lack of people led to the development of the patronage system. That was one of the reasons why Rome couldn’t defeat Alaric in 410, they had no available people.
Also, for the most part, Rome was “full” even during the peak of the Empire. For the most empty provinces, Gaul and Hispania, they were empty not due to the lack of people, but due to the lack of arable land. The technology to start tilling the hard soils of northern Gaul wouldn’t be invented until the 10th century. So the late Empire wouldn’t have faced any more population pressures than the Empire of Claudius or Nero.
And finally, the lack of fuel was also a problem during the peak of the Empire. I’ve once heard (though I don’t have a source) that much of the German economy was selling fuel to the Romans circa 100CE. But besides that, the Romans had other alternatives to wood, such as how coal was often used by blacksmiths.
Oh, also I wouldn’t say that history has “moved” north overtime, just that the history of the predominant “western” empire has. If looking at the most powerful and/or sophisticated state overtime, the focus of history would constantly move between Egypt, Anatolia, Persia, Northern India, and Southern China for most of history. I think the main western empire has moved overtime simply because it can’t go south, west, or east (because of the Sahara, Atlantic, and because if it went East, it wouldn’t be considered western anymore).
The European wars of religion included among others the Thirty Years War which killed one-third of the German population. It’s mentioned as a period that caused a lot of human suffering, but not as something that seriously harmed the long-term development of Europe. To the contrary, this happened during Europe’s ascendancy as a global superpower. Crisis, war and mismanagement is certain in nearly all periods of human history. They’re not sufficient causes of long-term decline.
“Full”, “empty” and “population pressure” are very relative terms. New technological inventions, new systems of agriculture and new organizational forms constantly change the balance. That makes it very hard to assess the actually “felt” pressure at a certain moment in time.
I’ve heard that some coal was used by Romans, but also that it was always a very niche activity. Do you have sources about coal being used by blacksmiths ‘often’?
As the title states, I don’t think “progress” existed (exists?). Not as a monolithic thing that simultaneously boosts population size, population density, economic activity, individual well-being, intellectual development, real-world power/dominance/influence and cultural legacy. Think of the internet today. 20⁄25 years ago, it was a niche activity for highly educated, relatively wealthy tech experts. Nowadays, it’s used by the masses. The average IQ of the average internet user has probably declined significantly. Better technology and years of development have given us new possibilities; tech monopolies and bad habits like declining attention spans and polarization have made other things worse. The internet of 2021 is not superior or inferior to the internet of 2001 in all aspects.
I believe the Europe of 1000AD was significantly more densely populated than the Roman Europe of 1AD (or 300AD). This led to fuel scarcity and an enormous decline in fuel-intensive luxuries like bathhouses, concrete, bricks and roof tiles. I also believe an ever increasing population pressure (and probably declining standards of living for many individuals!) was a vital trigger for the Industrial Revolution many centuries later. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. That makes it really difficult to talk about states being ’sophisticated”.
While the lack of fuel was a serious concern to the Romans (even during the time of Augustus), I don’t think either the population pressures or the lack of fuel had much of an effect on the decline of the Empire.
After the 3rd century, Rome was more likely to face under population than overpopulation. It was estimated that the Crisis of the 3rd Century led to the deaths of about 1⁄3 of the Empire. Afterwards, (particularly in the West) the severe lack of people led to the development of the patronage system. That was one of the reasons why Rome couldn’t defeat Alaric in 410, they had no available people.
Also, for the most part, Rome was “full” even during the peak of the Empire. For the most empty provinces, Gaul and Hispania, they were empty not due to the lack of people, but due to the lack of arable land. The technology to start tilling the hard soils of northern Gaul wouldn’t be invented until the 10th century. So the late Empire wouldn’t have faced any more population pressures than the Empire of Claudius or Nero.
And finally, the lack of fuel was also a problem during the peak of the Empire. I’ve once heard (though I don’t have a source) that much of the German economy was selling fuel to the Romans circa 100CE. But besides that, the Romans had other alternatives to wood, such as how coal was often used by blacksmiths.
Oh, also I wouldn’t say that history has “moved” north overtime, just that the history of the predominant “western” empire has. If looking at the most powerful and/or sophisticated state overtime, the focus of history would constantly move between Egypt, Anatolia, Persia, Northern India, and Southern China for most of history. I think the main western empire has moved overtime simply because it can’t go south, west, or east (because of the Sahara, Atlantic, and because if it went East, it wouldn’t be considered western anymore).
The European wars of religion included among others the Thirty Years War which killed one-third of the German population. It’s mentioned as a period that caused a lot of human suffering, but not as something that seriously harmed the long-term development of Europe. To the contrary, this happened during Europe’s ascendancy as a global superpower. Crisis, war and mismanagement is certain in nearly all periods of human history. They’re not sufficient causes of long-term decline.
“Full”, “empty” and “population pressure” are very relative terms. New technological inventions, new systems of agriculture and new organizational forms constantly change the balance. That makes it very hard to assess the actually “felt” pressure at a certain moment in time.
I’ve heard that some coal was used by Romans, but also that it was always a very niche activity. Do you have sources about coal being used by blacksmiths ‘often’?
As the title states, I don’t think “progress” existed (exists?). Not as a monolithic thing that simultaneously boosts population size, population density, economic activity, individual well-being, intellectual development, real-world power/dominance/influence and cultural legacy. Think of the internet today. 20⁄25 years ago, it was a niche activity for highly educated, relatively wealthy tech experts. Nowadays, it’s used by the masses. The average IQ of the average internet user has probably declined significantly. Better technology and years of development have given us new possibilities; tech monopolies and bad habits like declining attention spans and polarization have made other things worse. The internet of 2021 is not superior or inferior to the internet of 2001 in all aspects.
I believe the Europe of 1000AD was significantly more densely populated than the Roman Europe of 1AD (or 300AD). This led to fuel scarcity and an enormous decline in fuel-intensive luxuries like bathhouses, concrete, bricks and roof tiles. I also believe an ever increasing population pressure (and probably declining standards of living for many individuals!) was a vital trigger for the Industrial Revolution many centuries later. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. That makes it really difficult to talk about states being ’sophisticated”.