I think legislating Bayesianism is just actually a bad idea (even if we could get around the excessive-paperwork-to-show-all-your-evidence problem). I don’t think prediction markets are a perfect mechanism, but I think the non-Bayesianism highlighted here is a feature, not a bug. But all my actual arguments for that are in my Radical Probabilism post.
I’m curious what alternative mechanism design you might propose.
Did you read radical probabilism yet?
I think legislating Bayesianism is just actually a bad idea (even if we could get around the excessive-paperwork-to-show-all-your-evidence problem). I don’t think prediction markets are a perfect mechanism, but I think the non-Bayesianism highlighted here is a feature, not a bug. But all my actual arguments for that are in my Radical Probabilism post.
I’m curious what alternative mechanism design you might propose.