I expect us to reach a level where at least 40% of the ML research workflow can be automated by the time we saturate (reach 90%) on SWE-bench. I think we’ll be comfortably inside takeoff by that point (software progress at least 2.5x faster than right now). Wonder if you share this impression?
It seems super non-obvious to me when SWE-bench saturates relative to ML automation. I think the SWE-bench task distribution is very different from ML research work flow in a variety of ways.
Also, I think that human expert performance on SWE-bench is well below 90% if you use the exact rules they use in the paper. I messaged you explaining why I think this. The TLDR: it seems like test cases are often implementation dependent and the current rules from the paper don’t allow looking at the test cases.
I’d now change the numbers to around 15% automation and 25% faster software progress once we reach 90% on Verified. I expect that to happen by end of May median (but I’m still uncertain about the data quality and upper performance limit).
I expect us to reach a level where at least 40% of the ML research workflow can be automated by the time we saturate (reach 90%) on SWE-bench. I think we’ll be comfortably inside takeoff by that point (software progress at least 2.5x faster than right now). Wonder if you share this impression?
It seems super non-obvious to me when SWE-bench saturates relative to ML automation. I think the SWE-bench task distribution is very different from ML research work flow in a variety of ways.
Also, I think that human expert performance on SWE-bench is well below 90% if you use the exact rules they use in the paper. I messaged you explaining why I think this. The TLDR: it seems like test cases are often implementation dependent and the current rules from the paper don’t allow looking at the test cases.
I’d now change the numbers to around 15% automation and 25% faster software progress once we reach 90% on Verified. I expect that to happen by end of May median (but I’m still uncertain about the data quality and upper performance limit).
(edited to change Aug to May on 12/20/2024)