I don’t think I disagree with anything you said here. When I said “soon after”, I was thinking on the scale of days/weeks, but yeah, months seems pretty plausible too.
I was mostly arguing against a strawman takeover story where an AI kills many humans without the ability to maintain and expand its own infrastructure. I don’t expect an AI to fumble in this way.
The failure story is “pretty different” as in the non-suicidal takeover story, the AI needs to set up a place to bootstrap from. Ignoring galaxy brained setups, this would probably at minimum look something like a data center, a power plant, a robot factory, and a few dozen human-level robots. Not super hard once AI gets more integrated into the economy, but quite hard within a year from now due to a lack of robotics.
Maybe I’m not being creative enough, but I’m pretty sure that if I were uploaded into any computer in the world of my choice, all the humans dropped dead, and I could control any set of 10 thousand robots on the world, it would be nontrivial for me in that state to survive for more than a few years and eventually construct more GPUs. But this is probably not much of a crux, as we’re on track to get pretty general-purpose robots within a few years (I’d say around 50% that the Coffee test will be passed by EOY 2027).
Why do you think tens of thousands of robots are all going to break within a few years in an irreversible way, such that it would be nontrivial for you to have any effectors?
it would be nontrivial for me in that state to survive for more than a few years and eventually construct more GPUs
‘Eventually’ here could also use some cashing out. AFAICT ‘eventually’ here is on the order of ‘centuries’, not ‘days’ or ‘few years’. Y’all have got an entire planet of GPUs (as well as everything else) for free, sitting there for the taking, in this scenario.
Like… that’s most of the point here. That you get access to all the existing human-created resources, sans the humans. You can’t just imagine that y’all’re bootstrapping on a desert island like you’re some posthuman Robinson Crusoe!
Y’all won’t need to construct new ones necessarily for quite a while, thanks to the hardware overhang. (As I understand it, the working half-life of semiconductors before stuff like creep destroys them is on the order of multiple decades, particularly if they are not in active use, as issues like the rot have been fixed, so even a century from now, there will probably be billions of GPUs & CPUs sitting around which will work after possibly mild repair. Just the brandnew ones wrapped up tight in warehouses and in transit in the ‘pipeline’ would have to number in the millions, at a minimum. Since transistors have been around for less than a century of development, that seems like plenty of time, especially given all the inherent second-mover advantages here.)
I don’t think I disagree with anything you said here. When I said “soon after”, I was thinking on the scale of days/weeks, but yeah, months seems pretty plausible too.
I was mostly arguing against a strawman takeover story where an AI kills many humans without the ability to maintain and expand its own infrastructure. I don’t expect an AI to fumble in this way.
The failure story is “pretty different” as in the non-suicidal takeover story, the AI needs to set up a place to bootstrap from. Ignoring galaxy brained setups, this would probably at minimum look something like a data center, a power plant, a robot factory, and a few dozen human-level robots. Not super hard once AI gets more integrated into the economy, but quite hard within a year from now due to a lack of robotics.
Maybe I’m not being creative enough, but I’m pretty sure that if I were uploaded into any computer in the world of my choice, all the humans dropped dead, and I could control any set of 10 thousand robots on the world, it would be nontrivial for me in that state to survive for more than a few years and eventually construct more GPUs. But this is probably not much of a crux, as we’re on track to get pretty general-purpose robots within a few years (I’d say around 50% that the Coffee test will be passed by EOY 2027).
Why do you think tens of thousands of robots are all going to break within a few years in an irreversible way, such that it would be nontrivial for you to have any effectors?
‘Eventually’ here could also use some cashing out. AFAICT ‘eventually’ here is on the order of ‘centuries’, not ‘days’ or ‘few years’. Y’all have got an entire planet of GPUs (as well as everything else) for free, sitting there for the taking, in this scenario.
Like… that’s most of the point here. That you get access to all the existing human-created resources, sans the humans. You can’t just imagine that y’all’re bootstrapping on a desert island like you’re some posthuman Robinson Crusoe!
Y’all won’t need to construct new ones necessarily for quite a while, thanks to the hardware overhang. (As I understand it, the working half-life of semiconductors before stuff like creep destroys them is on the order of multiple decades, particularly if they are not in active use, as issues like the rot have been fixed, so even a century from now, there will probably be billions of GPUs & CPUs sitting around which will work after possibly mild repair. Just the brandnew ones wrapped up tight in warehouses and in transit in the ‘pipeline’ would have to number in the millions, at a minimum. Since transistors have been around for less than a century of development, that seems like plenty of time, especially given all the inherent second-mover advantages here.)