Why do you think tens of thousands of robots are all going to break within a few years in an irreversible way, such that it would be nontrivial for you to have any effectors?
it would be nontrivial for me in that state to survive for more than a few years and eventually construct more GPUs
‘Eventually’ here could also use some cashing out. AFAICT ‘eventually’ here is on the order of ‘centuries’, not ‘days’ or ‘few years’. Y’all have got an entire planet of GPUs (as well as everything else) for free, sitting there for the taking, in this scenario.
Like… that’s most of the point here. That you get access to all the existing human-created resources, sans the humans. You can’t just imagine that y’all’re bootstrapping on a desert island like you’re some posthuman Robinson Crusoe!
Y’all won’t need to construct new ones necessarily for quite a while, thanks to the hardware overhang. (As I understand it, the working half-life of semiconductors before stuff like creep destroys them is on the order of multiple decades, particularly if they are not in active use, as issues like the rot have been fixed, so even a century from now, there will probably be billions of GPUs & CPUs sitting around which will work after possibly mild repair. Just the brandnew ones wrapped up tight in warehouses and in transit in the ‘pipeline’ would have to number in the millions, at a minimum. Since transistors have been around for less than a century of development, that seems like plenty of time, especially given all the inherent second-mover advantages here.)
Why do you think tens of thousands of robots are all going to break within a few years in an irreversible way, such that it would be nontrivial for you to have any effectors?
‘Eventually’ here could also use some cashing out. AFAICT ‘eventually’ here is on the order of ‘centuries’, not ‘days’ or ‘few years’. Y’all have got an entire planet of GPUs (as well as everything else) for free, sitting there for the taking, in this scenario.
Like… that’s most of the point here. That you get access to all the existing human-created resources, sans the humans. You can’t just imagine that y’all’re bootstrapping on a desert island like you’re some posthuman Robinson Crusoe!
Y’all won’t need to construct new ones necessarily for quite a while, thanks to the hardware overhang. (As I understand it, the working half-life of semiconductors before stuff like creep destroys them is on the order of multiple decades, particularly if they are not in active use, as issues like the rot have been fixed, so even a century from now, there will probably be billions of GPUs & CPUs sitting around which will work after possibly mild repair. Just the brandnew ones wrapped up tight in warehouses and in transit in the ‘pipeline’ would have to number in the millions, at a minimum. Since transistors have been around for less than a century of development, that seems like plenty of time, especially given all the inherent second-mover advantages here.)