I find your example to be better than my median modification, so that’s great. My gut reaction was that the example statements are too isolated facts, but on reflection I think they are actually decent. Developmental psychology is not a bad article choice for the exercise.
(I also find the examples hard, so it’s not just you. I also felt like I on average underestimated the difficulty of spotting the modifications I had made, in that my friends were less accurate than I unconsciously expected. Textbook example of hindsight bias.)
Ultimately, though, I would like this exercise to go beyond standard calibration training (“here’s a binary statement, assign a probability from 0% to 100%”), since there are so many tools for that already and the exercise has potential for so much more. I’m just not yet sure how to unleash that potential.
I used Alex Turners entire shortform for my prompt as context for gpt-4 which worked well enough to make the task difficult for me but maybe I just suck at this task.
Thanks for the link, I wasn’t aware of this.
I find your example to be better than my median modification, so that’s great. My gut reaction was that the example statements are too isolated facts, but on reflection I think they are actually decent. Developmental psychology is not a bad article choice for the exercise.
(I also find the examples hard, so it’s not just you. I also felt like I on average underestimated the difficulty of spotting the modifications I had made, in that my friends were less accurate than I unconsciously expected. Textbook example of hindsight bias.)
Ultimately, though, I would like this exercise to go beyond standard calibration training (“here’s a binary statement, assign a probability from 0% to 100%”), since there are so many tools for that already and the exercise has potential for so much more. I’m just not yet sure how to unleash that potential.