I find your example to be better than my median modification, so that’s great. My gut reaction was that the example statements are too isolated facts, but on reflection I think they are actually decent. Developmental psychology is not a bad article choice for the exercise.
(I also find the examples hard, so it’s not just you. I also felt like I on average underestimated the difficulty of spotting the modifications I had made, in that my friends were less accurate than I unconsciously expected. Textbook example of hindsight bias.)
Ultimately, though, I would like this exercise to go beyond standard calibration training (“here’s a binary statement, assign a probability from 0% to 100%”), since there are so many tools for that already and the exercise has potential for so much more. I’m just not yet sure how to unleash that potential.
Thanks for the link, I wasn’t aware of this.
I find your example to be better than my median modification, so that’s great. My gut reaction was that the example statements are too isolated facts, but on reflection I think they are actually decent. Developmental psychology is not a bad article choice for the exercise.
(I also find the examples hard, so it’s not just you. I also felt like I on average underestimated the difficulty of spotting the modifications I had made, in that my friends were less accurate than I unconsciously expected. Textbook example of hindsight bias.)
Ultimately, though, I would like this exercise to go beyond standard calibration training (“here’s a binary statement, assign a probability from 0% to 100%”), since there are so many tools for that already and the exercise has potential for so much more. I’m just not yet sure how to unleash that potential.